Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Approvals/Favorables from Rassy:

Vitter- 52/38
Jindal- 45/53
Obama- 44/53

That's high for Obama in LA........really high....

Whether the democrats can win this race centers on whether they can persuade Mitch Landrieu to actually run. Enough said.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Miles, what's the latest on whether Mitch Landrieu is going to jump in?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A PPP poll last September found Vitter leading Edwards 50-32 in a head to head. Granted, it's a fairly old poll, but it still makes it clear that Edwards winning would be a BIG upset.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_LA_9301205.pdf

Vitter leads Mitch Landrieu 47-38 in the same poll, so Landrieu's obviously the better dem option. The question is if he actually wants to run. The filing deadline is in September, so he's got plenty of time to enter.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Edwards will most likely get into runoff, but what will he do after that? GE chances are minimal...

Edwards's hope, presumably, is that Vitter, Dardenne, and Angelle attack each other so much that whichever one of them makes the runoff is so damaged that Edwards actually has a shot. But that's not terribly likely.

Com'on, Mitch Landrieu, run! You know you want to....

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mitch Landrieu officially not running.

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268748/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=6PqNJO0j

Miles for Governor!

drat!

Does anyone think Edwards even has a chance in a runoff with Vitter or Dardenne? If so, why?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OC: Even if the senate had passed Keystone and Obama had signed it before 11/4/2014, Landrieu still would have lost. Her opponent could have claimed some credit for it, being an active advocate for it in the house and all, and it's not as if Keystone was the number one issue on LA voter's minds - Nah, it was ObamaCare.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Thanks, Miles!

Yes, i noticed that too...  The run-off in November will be almost formality: probably no more then 5 Senate seats and about 10-12 in House... What about an ideological orientation of candidates (mainly Democrats, because you can never realistically expect more then "pragmatic conservative" from Republican candidates in Louisiana, and even that - rarely..)?

Republicans control the LA legislature...

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls closing in 2 hours and 15 minutes.

AP Results Page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2015/by_state/LA_Page_1024.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

AOSHQDD is covering this, but their results page isn't up yet.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AOSHQDD Results here: http://dd.aoshq.com/results/louisiana-governor/

Polls closing in 13 minutes. Go Dardenne!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Offices up for election tonight:

Agriculture Commissioner
Attorney General
BESE Board Members
Governor
Insurance Commissioner
Lt. Governor
Sec. of State
State House and Senate
Treasurer

Plus four constitutional amendments.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I am so glad this election is held today and not on November 3rd.

Yep. The runoff gets its own isolated day as well on Nov. 21.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And the polls have closed in LA.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

When should the first results come in?

LA tends to have a slow start, but we should get something by 8:30

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lt. Gov:

Holden(D) - 34%
Nungesser (R) - 33%
Young (R) - 27%
Guillory (R) - 6%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Lt. Gov:

Holden (D): 35%
Nungesser (R): 34%
Young (R): 25%
Guillory (R): 5%

Still just early vote.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP is getting results now.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 67%
Greer (D): 23%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 2%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 39%
Landry (R): 38%
Baloney (D): 12%
Jackson (D): 8%
Maley (R): 3%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 59%
McGehee (D): 15%
Parker (R): 15%
Hodge (D): 12%

Lt. Governor:

Nungesser (R): 35%
Young (R): 31%
Holden (D): 26%
Guillory (R): 8%

SOS:

Schedler (R): 65%
Tyson (D): 35%

Treasurer:

Kennedy (R): 83%
Treadway (R): 17%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Atlas is really having some problems.

Traditional 9:30 ET Maintenance.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

3/3945 Reporting:

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 63%
Greer (D): 27%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 2%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 38%
Landry (R): 34%
Baloney (D): 14%
Jackson (D): 10%
Maley (R): 4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 58%
McGehee (D): 17%
Parker (R): 13%
Hodge (D): 12%

Lt. Governor:

Nungesser (R): 33%
Young (R): 32%
Holden (D): 30%
Guillory (R): 6%

SOS:

Schedler (R): 67%
Tyson (D): 33%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And a full 1% of the vote is in!

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 62%
Greer (D): 28%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 2%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 38%
Landry (R): 33%
Baloney (D): 14%
Jackson (D): 10%
Maley (R): 4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 57%
McGehee (D): 17%
Parker (R): 13%
Hodge (D): 12%

Lt. Governor:

Nungesser (R): 32%
Young (R): 32%
Holden (D): 30%
Guillory (R): 6%

SOS:

Schedler (R): 66%
Tyson (D): 34%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

3% of the vote in now:

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 62%
Greer (D): 28%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 2%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 38%
Landry (R): 33%
Baloney (D): 15%
Jackson (D): 10%
Maley (R): 4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 56%
McGehee (D): 18%
Parker (R): 14%
Hodge (D): 13%

Lt. Governor:

Nungesser (R): 32%
Young (R): 31%
Holden (D): 31%
Guillory (R): 6%

SOS:

Schedler (R): 66%
Tyson (D): 34%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP projects 1st slot for Edwards!

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

14% of the vote is in now.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 60%
Greer (D): 29%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 3%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 37%
Landry (R): 33%
Baloney (D): 15%
Jackson (D): 11%
Maley (R): 4%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 55%
McGehee (D): 18%
Parker (R): 14%
Hodge (D): 13%

Lt. Governor:

Holden (D): 32%
Nungesser (R): 31%
Young (R): 29%
Guillory (R): 7%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

17% of the vote is in now.

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 60%
Greer (D): 29%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 3%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 37%
Landry (R): 33%
Baloney (D): 16%
Jackson (D): 11%
Maley (R): 3%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 54%
McGehee (D): 18%
Parker (R): 14%
Hodge (D): 13%

Lt. Governor:

Holden (D): 32%
Nungesser (R): 31%
Young (R): 29%
Guillory (R): 7%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Current Results for the Constitutional Amendments:

Proposition - 1 - Rename Budget Stabilization - Ballot Issue
Act No. 473 - SB No. 202
664 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 17%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   147,444   51%
Yes   144,183   49%

Proposition - 2 - State Infrastructure Bank - Ballot Issue
Act No. 471 - HB No. 618
664 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 17%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   157,016   53%
No   138,388   47%

Proposition - 3 - Fiscal Sessions - Ballot Issue
Act No. 472 - HB No. 518
664 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 17%
Name   Votes   Vote %
No   158,068   54%
Yes   134,455   46%

Proposition - 4 - Instate-Only Tax Exemption - Ballot Issue
Act No. 470 - HB No. 360
664 of 3945 Precincts Reporting - 17%
Name   Votes   Vote %
Yes   154,035   53%
No   139,006   47%

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rocketing up to 30% of the vote now:

Agriculture Commissioner:

Strain (R): 60%
Greer (D): 29%
LaBranche (R): 8%
Juttner (G): 3%

Attorney General:

Caldwell (R): 36%
Landry (R): 34%
Baloney (D): 16%
Jackson (D): 11%
Maley (R): 3%

Insurance Commissioner:

Donelon (R): 54%
McGehee (D): 18%
Parker (R): 14%
Hodge (D): 14%

Lt. Governor:

Holden (D): 32%
Nungesser (R): 31%
Young (R): 29%
Guillory (R): 8%