Most vulnerable Southern state for Republicans

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

So, its perhaps part of the same tendency which turned Northern NJ, Northern VA, and suburban counties as a whole from staunchly Republican to Democratic leaning over the last 2 decades?

[Tieteobserver]

Am I the only one seeing the huge of a nuisance that the changing demographics in TX will be for the state GOP very, very soon?

From what I've read and heard, both AR and NC, though still very Democratic at the local level, will be shifting red over the next few years. I guess they are mostly old Dixiecrats whom, by some reason, were too stubborn/lazy/loyal to their tickets to go nominally red. Kind of Zell Millers.

Though I see VA as Southern due to it being in the Confederacy (and hosting its capital also), I don't see it as quite Southern. Northern VA, where if not the majority, very certainly a hefty chunk of the population lives, specially strikes me as very Northeastern.

North Carolina is moving to the left nationally.  Many transplants from the norrtheast in the Charlotte and Research Triangle areas.

Texas is a bit of a possibility, but it is more of a long term potental shift than anything that we will see in the next election cycle or two.

NE transplants, pardon me if I'm wrong, are mostly middle-class Republican leaning fleeing unemployment and high taxes, no? Though very probably more socially liberal than your average Appalachian voter, I thought they were a reliable constituency for the GOP.

Middle class is correct, but its more complex than that.  Keep in mind the transplant population is diverse.  The Asian and Hispanic populations have increased.  Also the white transplant vote, while in some cases still GOP leaning (certainly not all) is considerably less Republican than previously there.

So, its perhaps part of the same tendency which turned Northern NJ, Northern VA, and suburban counties as a whole from staunchly Republican to Democratic leaning over the last 2 decades?

Yes, it is very similar to what has been going on there, especially VA.  NC has a longer distance to travel to get to that point, but it is very similar.

I see it. I just thought that this phenomenom was restricted to the Northeast-Great Lakes-West Coast major metros. Didn't imagine it already had made inroads further south, even if actually just a few exclaves.

Might it hit Atlanta, Dallas, Houston in the near future? Maybe even Phoenix?

[Tieteobserver]

Oh it is definitely affecting the south, including Atlanta and Houston already. The Dallas and Phoenix metro areas are still soo staunchly Republican they aren't about to change any time soon. Both have diverse, liberal enclaves, but they're only a tiny fraction of the population. You also don't notice it as much in the south as a lot of places because the states aren't swing states for the most part (except VA, NC as noted).

One other note on your post, the area of the county least affected by the rise of the liberal gentry is the Great Lakes states. Most of the rust belt has bleeding people forever and hasn't attracted the types of upscale voters that have turned VA atlas red. This is one of the reasons why some of political predictor types like to anticipate the Great Lakes States trending toward the Republicans. That reasoning is true at the moment, but only because of the definition of "trending", ie. the rest of the country is rapidly moving toward the Democrats but the Great Lakes States haven't moved any direction at all, so compared to the average have trended Republican.

Yeah, in fact I've noticed that as of lately, Pitts area, which seems much more immersed in the Great Lakes than in the Northeast (to which PA belongs) has been trending Republican, a reverse pattern from Philly.

Didn't read any about this, though, regarding other Rust Beltic metros, except maybe for Buffalo. Cleveland seems to be still the most reliably Democratic stronghold in OH. Same goes for Detroit I guess.

One interesting case though is that of Minneapolis. Though MN is that famous state which voted twice against Reagan, it seems to be trending Republican, or at least staying stable, over those last years. And differently from the Rust Belt states, MN is actually thriving.

[Tieteobserver]

Cleveland is still the Democratic stronghold of Ohio and will almost certainly remain so for a long time, but it's not because of an influx of liberal gentry, it's heavily Democratic because it has a very large blue collar industrial population and a large black population. It's a union vote Democratic area. It's slowly shrinking in population and the west side will probably have a Pittsburgh-like phenomenon in 30 years or so, but it has more liberal eastern suburbs and a larger black population than Pittsburgh so I can't see it trending quite as hard.

Cleveland's history is that of immigrant waves coming and settling in little ethnic neighborhoods built around a church or two nearby a factory. During the 60s and 70s, the combination of shuttered industry and racial tensions started the suburbanization process and caused people to begin fleeing the metro area. It was managed much better than Detroit and the city itself actually has a budget surplus and can function as a government, but much of the city is still a shadow of its former self. The Republicans have made inroads in the white ethnic groups, mainly because of social conservatism (ie. abortion, gay marriage, etc) but will have a very hard time actually winning there because of free trade and union issues. As a result, a lot of the more working class areas vote more lopsidedly in favor of the Democrats on the local level than the presidential level.

Also I used to live in Cleveland

Its a shame what happened to the so-called "Rust Belt". Those cities have by far the coolest skylines, and are in my opinion the most beautiful cities in America. I like "old" cities. Unfortunately, even with 5 decades of decline brought by unionism, they still seem not to learn. Whilst Whites down South have long shifted to the GOP, many ethnic Whites up there seem to be very stubborn going Republican. I'd say even the old southern Whites were not that stubborn leaving the Dems.