Welcome to the 30,000 club!
Sorry that's not a question.
Thanks, you too!
1) Will Nevada ever again vote Republican for President? If so, when?
2) What will be your post count when the next Republican Presidential nominee wins Nevada? If you don't think that a Republican will ever win it, then what will your post count be when Nevada next trends Republican 2 cycles in a row?
3) How many of those posts will be about Nevada?
4) Why does polling so consistently and predictably overestimate Republicans in Nevada?
5) When will be the first year when a Democratic Presidential candidate carries a rural county in Nevada? Which will the county be?
1. I’m guessing Republicans are much more likely than not to win it in one of the next two presidential elections. If Biden wins re-election, 2028 will probably be a decisive win for Republicans, in which they flip NV along with several other states. Trump probably has about a 40% chance of winning NV next year. The only way it goes Democratic in both years is if Biden wins it narrowly while narrowly losing the election.
2. Hopefully under 50K.
3. I’ve made very few posts about NV recently. I’ve pretty much acknowledged that it’s a swing state. I maintain that it’s not going to trend significantly Republican in the near future, but Democrats clearly can’t take it for granted.
4. A combination of difficulty reaching Latinos who speak more Spanish than English (and are more Democratic-leaning than those who primarily speak English), as well as the fact that it has a fairly transient population, and those who move a lot are more Democratic-leaning.
5. It’s probably going to take a realignment for a Democrat to win a rural NV county. If Carson City counts, maybe a Democrat could win it in the next really big win, but I think we’ll keep seeing the same county map in NV for the foreseeable future.