Rate CA-27th - Smith v Garcia

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Lean R for 2022, though if Democrats can nominate someone not named Christy Smith, Garcia will be in big trouble in 2024 and beyond, quite possibly DOA.

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Still Lean R, though maybe Smith blowing this race a third time will finally convince Democrats to nominate someone else, which will pretty much doom Garcia in 2024 and beyond.

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Can someone please explain what makes Smith particularly awful? Obviously she did poorly in 2020 but she seems like a pretty generic D with no real scandals or anything.

I’d argue this race is more about Garcia being strong rather than Smith being weak.

She has a tendency to make some pretty serious gaffes.

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Likley D, look at the current district. partisan trends will be enough for Smith to win.

And yet I'm criticized for saying that Atlas is in denial about the incoming red wave.

It's still Tilt/Lean R.

I mean, yes, a few people might be denying it, but the poll results show a large majority rating this race (in a Biden +12 district) between Tilt and Likely R, so most believe that 2022 will be a very good year for Republicans.

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Likley D, look at the current district. partisan trends will be enough for Smith to win.

And yet I'm criticized for saying that Atlas is in denial about the incoming red wave.

It's still Tilt/Lean R.

I mean, yes, a few people might be denying it, but the poll results show a large majority rating this race (in a Biden +12 district) between Tilt and Likely R, so most believe that 2022 will be a very good year for Republicans.

The most vocal ones are certainly in denial, though.

That seems to be how it always works, regardless of who’s winning.