NJ-GOV: Fairleigh Dickinson/AARP: Murphy +25 with voters aged 50+ (user search)
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  NJ-GOV: Fairleigh Dickinson/AARP: Murphy +25 with voters aged 50+ (search mode)
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Author Topic: NJ-GOV: Fairleigh Dickinson/AARP: Murphy +25 with voters aged 50+  (Read 1085 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,322
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

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« on: October 22, 2021, 12:51:43 PM »

Obvious garbage, but people should be skeptical of all polling that seems to go against fundamentals, not just those which show results that they don't like.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,322
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2021, 02:20:02 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2021, 02:27:19 PM by Xing »

Obvious garbage, but people should be skeptical of all polling that seems to go against fundamentals, not just those which show results that they don't like.

Except a Murphy +6 result is far more believable than this nonsense given the current environment and Democrats' national numbers (which everyone here seems to be ignoring, pretending that we’re still in 2017), so no, you don’t have to dismiss the Emerson poll just because you (understandably) dismiss the one.

A Murphy +4 result might be *relatively* more believable than this poll, but that's a low bar. A 4-point result in NJ is not plausible barring a huge drop in popularity for Murphy or a 1980-style environment for Democrats. If this were 2017, I'd expect more like Murphy +20 instead of Murphy +10.
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