GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

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Lean D -> Lean D.

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I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

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I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Of course you couldn’t resist inserting your silly fixation on NV/Laxalt into the discussion of this race. This was already touched upon in other threads (not that you’re even receptive to that message because you’ll always cling to your inelastic & deep blue Nevada/weak Laxalt narrative regardless of actual election results), but the difference is that Laxalt's campaign is hyper-focused on making the case for firing the incumbent (and the national party which said incumbent can be tied to fairly easily) while Walker's campaign amounts to little other than the same 'inspirational', slick, and repetitive ads recycled over and over again without any effort to define Warnock at all (and to define him before Warnock has defined himself, which he already has). This is an absolutely self-defeating strategy given that Walker can’t afford even the slightest underperformance among white voters and that negative campaigning (if executed competently) is almost always more effective than any barrage of 'positive' ads.

Basically, the Laxalt campaign actually understands how federal races are won in a midterm under an unpopular President from the other party, whereas the Walker campaign really doesn’t.

Nice strawman. Either way, I don't think it's the case that Walker isn't going to make this race about Warnock, and positive ads can certainly be effective. And all things being even, an anti-incumbent campaign is hardly a "strong" one, merely a generic one, and that kind of one that, yes, works in a good year for one's party, but doesn't exactly lead to an overperformance. I'm not even arguing that Walker is heavily favored, simply that the environment is likely good enough for him to win, and the same goes for Laxalt, as does the idea that he can't afford to underperform.

I don't think NV is a "deep blue state", I think it's a state that would lean Democratic in a neutral year (which 2022 clearly isn't.) You're the one who seems obsessed with the idea that NV will be "ground zero" for a Democratic collapse, which doesn't really seem to be founded on anything other than a <0.1% Republican swing from 2016-2020, or assuming that Latinos will outright vote Republican. Not sure how else you explain thinking Sisolak could lose by double digits.

I don't see why Walker is considered a "weak candidate" while Laxalt is considered a "strong candidate."

Has Walker ever won a statewide race? Has Laxalt made the dame bone-headed remarks as Walker?

Laxalt won by a razor-thin margin while Sandoval won by over 40% and Democrats pretty much ignored the state. Hardly an impressive victory. And while people like to point to his 2018 performance, an argument can be made that Sandoval's popularity and Sisolak being a mediocre candidate played a role. And Laxalt has made plenty of "controversial" comments. Perhaps not worded in the same strange way as Walker's, but still.

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It’s honestly hard to believe that Walker isn’t trying to lose, though I really shouldn’t be that surprised…

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https://twitter.com/patriottakes/status/1562123435463135232

Imagine if a left-winger used “Jesus Christ” and “mental problem” in the same sentence, lol.

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For all of his flaws, this is actually smart by Walker to create the narrative that it’s democrats talking about these issues. For culture stuff to be effective, the narrative needs to be that democrats are extreme and they insist on talking about it instead of bread and butter issues.

That's a complete strawman though because Warnock has been talking about capping insulin and running on Democratic legislative accomplishments.

This is true, but in the end, framing/perception are what matters. It’s almost always the Republicans who are bringing up culture war issues, though they often manage to flip the script in their narrative.

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Is anyone else surprised by the utter lack of media interest in this race? I know that control of the Senate isn't in question anymore but I would think that any race involving Herschel Walker would attract more attention...

There was hardly any attention paid to Louisiana in 2014 (after the jungle primary), since control of the Senate had already been determined, though I guess that was also due to the perception that Landrieu was DOA. Maybe very few people think Walker has a chance.

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I’m anxious for some Election Day reports so we can cling to single data points to jump back and forth between Warnock being doomed and set to win in a landslide.

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Warnock will win by 10+ Points. The Question is when will the Race be called. My guess between 8 and 9pm ET!

So basically a Chambliss vs. Martin 2008 situation? If Republican turnout is way down, it could happen, but I’d think a high single-digit win is closer to Warnock's realistic ceiling, and I’m not sure I’d even bet on that. Don’t really get why people are so confident here.

I mean, it’s Atlas, what do you expect?

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PredictIt isn't freaking out to Walker taking the lead, that's something. Anyway, looks like a narrow win for Warnock. I think some of us (myself included) overestimated the trend in Georgia, though I'd still call it a swing state rather than a Republican-leaning state. And stay away from needles, kids.

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https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/1600347885291413504


I love Biden.

Fitting, since Dark Brandon was the first to turn Georgia to the dark side.