Biden's presidency: prospects

[Xing]

Depends on two things: Whether he tries to move the country at least somewhat in a progressive direction and whether or not Democrats take the Senate.

If he governs as at least somewhat as a progressive and Democrats have the Senate, then it’s a transitional term away from Trumpism, and Democrats make some progress, especially on healthcare and climate change. 2022 is probably not great for Democrats, but is better than 2010 due to higher base turnout.

If Democrats don’t take the Senate, he gets a few things done through EOs, but it’s mostly a lot of gridlock.

If, on the other hand, he tries to be “bipartisan” and “work with Republicans”, very little will get done or change, as Republicans will predictably block everything he tries to do and blame him for not getting anything done. Base turnout will be down among Democrats and 2022 will be a bloodbath, making it even less likely that any progress is made.