Most overrated/underrated Senate candidates? Part III (2020)

[Xing]

Overrated:
Ernst: There, I said it. Yes, she's favored at this point, but no way is she safe or less likely to lose than Sullivan, Cornyn, or McConnell. It's strange how many people say that the Democrats winning three out of four House races and coming surprisingly close to a fourth is meaningless, but that the gubernatorial race tells us everything about Iowa.

Jones: Not because people think he's favored, but because people think he actually has a shot.

Gardner: This race is going to be NV-SEN 2018 all over again.

Peters: While I think he's probably favored, like Ernst, he's not safe, and this is a race where Democrats will have to play defense.

Underrated:
McConnell: How many times do Democrats need to get burned here before realizing that this race is Safe R?

Bullock: Assuming he runs, this race should not be rated Likely R. While he's overrated as a presidential candidate, he would make the Senate race here legitimately competitive.

Shaheen:People act as though she could easily fall to an opponent other than Sununu (thus the "Toss-Up"/"Tilt D" ratings. She's not more vulnerable than Peters, and even if Sununu is her opponent, I doubt she loses if Trump can't win New Hampshire.

Roberts: I agree that he's a weak candidate and probably shouldn't be running, but he's not Kobach levels of bad. The gubernatorial race doesn't mean that Kansas is suddenly a swing state, or is Ed Markey vulnerable? Not to mention, Goofy Greg will probably run again. Roberts isn't going to lose.

Collins is both underrated and overrated.

[Xing]

I am the only one on this site who believes that Michigan is trending Republican and that Gary Peters is not dead on arrival simultaneously.

Gary Peters certainly isn't anything like DOA. I'd call the race Lean D, and say that he's slightly more likely to win re-election than the Democratic candidate for president.