NV Emerson: UTDH +7

[Xing]

I think others have pointed out the problems with this "poll" quite well. Instead of my usual shtick about how a polling error here, which has happened before, is more likely than NV not only being immune to the blue wave, but hosting a giant red wave, let me talk about something else...

This absurd electoral truism of "Nevada bucks the trend." It really ONLY applies to the Senate races, and it's a prime example of correlation not equaling causation. In 2010, Harry Reid's opponent was Sharron Angle, who was a complete lunatic, and Republicans should have known that someone with ties to their state as strong as Reid wasn't going to go down easily. Had he faced a stronger opponent, he might well have lost. In 2012, Dean Heller's opponent was scandal-plagued, and basically written off after polls showed her consistently down by about 5%. He still just barely eked out a win against her with just 46% of the vote. Had he faced a slightly better opponent, he almost definitely would have lost. Then there's 2016, where Nevada really did not buck the trend, unless your criteria for "bucking the trend" is based only on who wins. In a slightly Republican-leaning year, a Democratic-leaning state narrowly went Democratic. It still swung Republican, just not by enough for it to flip in a year that was only somewhat Republican-leaning.

And why on earth would Nevada buck the trend this year? Heller's not a popular incumbent like Baker, Scott, or Hogan, Nevada's not a Republican stronghold like North Dakota, and while Rosen might basically be a generic Democrat, it's not like there's anything so offensively off-putting about her as to turn off a large segment of the population.

If 2018 is a good year for Republicans, sure Heller could win. But there's really no reason to believe Heller will survive a blue wave, unless you believe the polls. And if you do, I'll direct you to IceSpear's posts or my signature.