Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,322
Political Matrix E: -6.52, S: -3.91
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« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 12:26:46 AM » |
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What's more likely, that a Republican incumbent less popular than Trump in a Democratic-leaning Clinton state wins in a great year for Democrats, or that Nevada polls are wrong, as they have been many times before?
It would be one thing if polls were consistently showing Heller up by high single digits or low double digits, or if Heller were a popular incumbent who won by a wide margin in 2012. Then there might be some reason to believe that Heller could potentially survive a Democratic wave in a light blue state. However, he doesn't seem to be stronger than a generic R, and has never led a poll by more than 2 or 3 percent, not to mention he has been behind in the majority of the polls. That tells me that the only way he would survive would be if 2018 were far worse for Democrats than we are expecting.
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