OR-GOV: Brown vs. Buehler

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Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

[Xing]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

[Xing]

Two junk polls, and now we believe that Republicans will flip a race that they couldn't in 2010, 2014, or 2016? Suuuuuuuure. Of course Oregon is just as likely to flip as Wisconsin.

OR is no where near as Solidly Dem as you think


Actually other than NH and ME it is the most republican coastal state

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia don't exist?

I meant out of the  North East and Pacific Coast states

That's like saying that South Carolina is the most Democratic Southern state other than Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Sure, it's not a state that votes Democratic by 25-30%, but federally it's a safe bet for Democrats. Gubernatorial races are usually closer, but in a year like this, there's no reason to believe Oregon will buck the national trend, unless Republicans have virtually everything working in their favor.

Whereas a Democrat winning Wisconsin... Despite the obsession with "Wississippi" on this forum, that wouldn't be a strange result in the slightest, much less in a year like this. Likely D is justifiable for Oregon. Rating it as likely to flip as Wisconsin is absurd.

We dont even know who the Democratic Nominee in WI is gonna be , and Walker is a better campaigner than Kate Brown. Also Buehler is a Charlie Baker type Republican.


Also Oregon is not safe D its PVI is just +7.5-8 Dem which is more Likely D than Safe

1) That's not PVI. Oregon's PVI is currently D+5, which means you'd expect a Republican to get 45% if they're getting 50% nationally, assuming uniform swing. Even if Buehler is a good candidate, this is not looking like a 50/50 year...

2) Scott Walker being a good campaigner is debatable, but even so, that's not enough to make a state with even PVI "Lean R" in what's looking like a very good year for Democrats.

My point is the inconsistency regarding polls among some users on this site.

Two junk polls showing Oregon close = OMG! Toss-Up/Tilt D!
Two polls (one junk, one decent) showing Walker losing badly = Junk, Lean R.

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Some of y'all red Oregonians really will vote for someone you disagree more with because of some weird obsession with "moderates."

Welcome to Atlas!