NV-SEN: Rosen in

[Xing]

If Tarkanian couldn't beat Rosen in NV-03, I don't know why he thinks he can beat her in a statewide race.

[Xing]

Dean Heller finally reveals that he voted for Trump.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/nine-months-after-2016-election-heller-finally-says-he-voted-for-trump

Guess he's willing to kill his GE chances to make it out of the primary.

[Xing]

Another reason why Heller has really decent chance to win re-election in November is that he got elected in Nevada in 2012 despite the fact that Obama won that state by 7 percentage points at the presidential level.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2012

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Nevada,_2012

So he really can win re-election in Nevada despite Hillary Clinton winning it in 2016.

People have brought this up millions of times. Heller was facing an opponent with an ethics scandal, and he won by 1% with 46% of the vote. He pretty much just matched Romney's share of the vote. Rosen might not be a stellar candidate, but she's not Shelley Berkeley bad.

[Xing]

Wow, Atlas thinks Jacky Rosen is doing poorly in something. Are you going to tell me that water is wet next?

It might be, but the odds are about the same as Shalala’s odds of winning.

[Xing]

Rosen is going to win by more than Hillary/Masto did if the Dems do anywhere near as well overall as a lot of people here think they will.

In a world where Dems have any prayer of winning ND/TX/TN, Rosen is winning by at least high single digits.

Yeah, and if (big if) the early voting so far is any indication, I think we could have an exceptionally large polling error in Nevada.

[Xing]

If early voting gives any indication, it looks like Rosen will win this in the end (which is what I always kinda thought would happen)

Thing is, it really doesn't. I'm old enough to remember all the hype over early voting in 2016, when they were saying Clinton had "banked" all these votes in swing states (especially NC) that made her unbeatable no matter what happened on Election Day.

Democrats also started with a big early vote advantage in 2014, which led them to believe they would hold several key Senate seats. In 2010, the Democrats' early vote turnout was so large they were starting to believe there would be no Republican wave at all.

We know what happened. Clinton lost. The Democrats suffered a Senate wipeout in 2014, including in NC and IA, where early voting looked very good. And 2010 was an all-around "shellacking."

It repeats itself over and over again. The final result ends up completely different from the early vote, but people still keep putting stock in it and declaring winners on that basis. I'm not saying that Democrats won't have a good year, but the one thing history ought to teach us is that we can't know anything until all the votes are counted on Election Day.

Anyone who thinks the early vote is in any way predictive should read this article: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/11/02/early_voting_a_poor_predictor_of_final_results.html. Note that it was written just before the 2016 election. Six days later, it was proven right yet again, so in hindsight its case is even stronger than it was at the time.

Nevada is the one state where early vote tells us anything though. Early vote let us know that Reid would beat Angle, the GOP would sweep in 2014, Hillary would win in 2016 (despite polling giving Trump the lead), etc.

Yeah, I remember people telling me that having Nevada as likely D in 2016 was ridiculous because of MUH polls (which clearly are more important than actual votes.) I guess history repeats itself.

Yeah, early voting in Nevada suggested that Democrats were in a very good position, and would probably hold on there even if Election Day went badly for them. As it turns out, Election Day did go horribly for Democrats, but even as rural turnout was high in Nevada, they held on. If you're going to pay attention to early voting in one state, Nevada is a good choice.

[Xing]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

[Xing]

LMAO

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DUxDXxZ1Tf0#t=600

No, Patrick, Nevada is not a "very tough state" for Democrats.

Colorado is not a "very tough state" either.

EDIT: Also, someone needs to inform "expert" John King that Trump did not win Nevada. Apparently he's not aware, lol.

King is 100% right. Heller has successfully made a coalition of trump voters ready to vote in his command, and moderates who can't stomach Rosen as their senator. Heller will narrowly hold on.

Did you miss the part where he said went through every "Toss-Up" state and said "The president won in 2016, the president won in 2016, etc." and then "The president's approval is above 50, the president's approval is above 50, etc." So John King apparently thinks that Trump won Nevada in 2016 and that his approval is about 50% there. Maybe he just misspoke, but it's still a pretty bone-headed mistake to make.

I like the takes of Michigan and Florida going Republican because that's what happened in 2016, but that the same logic is never applied to Nevada.

[Xing]

Yeah, some of us have been saying for a while that Heller will lose even if Democrats underperform expectations nationally. While posters should be careful about extrapolating the good results for Democrats in Nevada to other states, it's pretty clear that the "NV is Lean R/Heller will win" posts are the ones that won't age well.

[Xing]

Ralston has made his predictions:

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/predictions-for-tuesday

NV-SEN: Rosen wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-GOV: Sisolak wins 48-46 (D Gain)

NV-03: Lee wins 49-46 (D Hold)

NV-04: Horsford wins 52-46 (D Hold)

He also predicts that Democrats will have 13 seats in the state Senate, and 26 in the Assembly. He gives a pretty scathing review of Heller, but lest people claim that he's "biased", he nailed the Senate races in 2010, 2012, and 2016.