Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
Posts: 30,318
Political Matrix E: -6.52, S: -3.91
|
|
« on: August 16, 2016, 07:26:06 PM » |
|
Well, I know you want to predict a Trump win, and I can't tell you not to, so I'll just point out a few technical things...
1) If Hillary is winning Maine with 60% of the vote, there's no way she'd lose ME-02. The gap between ME-01 and ME-02 is usually 10-15 points, and while it could be larger this time, the gap would have to be at least 40 points for your map to happen, which is completely implausible.
2) I highly doubt that Trump is going to do significantly better in Alabama than Kentucky or Tennessee.
3) 52/53 seems very low for Hillary in OR/WA, unless you're predicting a lot of third party voting.
4) It seems odd that Illinois (Obama's home state) would swing toward Hillary, while the rest of the Midwest swings (sometimes strongly) away from her.
5) My own thoughts about Trump's chances in NV (more accurately, lack thereof), the gap between NV and AZ would probably be much larger than that.
|