NY-Quinnipiac: D: Clinton 54% Sanders 42%; R: Trump 56% Cruz 20% Kasich 19%

[Xing]

This is obviously quite favorable for Sanders, and he's probably down by more than that. It is early, though, so Sanders might not be headed for the 30-point clobbering some people seem to think he is. Also, let this poll serve as evidence that Kasich's GE poll numbers are way too optimistic.

[Xing]

I didn't mean to make it sound like whites and blacks in South Carolina will vote like the ones in New York, just that I find it weird how Quinnipiac's numbers show that the one closed primary that Clinton will underperform her 2008 margin is her home state.

Quinnipiac has been a bit friendly to Sanders. At the same time, if she does underperform her 2008 margin in NY, it might be because the home state effect won't be as strong as it was then, since she isn't currently a senator from there. Also, I fully expect her to underperform her 2008 numbers in KY and OR, also closed primaries.