Nate Silver changed his polls-plus probability for Nevada from Clinton as 51% favorite to Clinton as 69% favorite based (as far as I can tell) solely on this poll. I'm guessing that means he assumes a pretty big house effect in favor of Sanders?
I'm also curious as to why he changed his prediction so much. He did give Clinton about a 75% chance of winning Iowa, so it's not like he's denying the possibility of a Sanders win in Nevada, but I'd still like to know how he got so much from relatively little.
