NH-Gravis Marketing Ayotte Leads 49-42

[Xing]

Kelly Ayotte got really lucky that she wasn't named Ken Ayotte lol. Anyway, she was up by more in the last Gravis poll and pretty much all "undecideds" in NH are Democrats... so, still tilt D.

Yeah, I'm sure if Kirk or Johnson were leading by 7, you'd totally call those races tilt D.

[Xing]

Kelly Ayotte got really lucky that she wasn't named Ken Ayotte lol. Anyway, she was up by more in the last Gravis poll and pretty much all "undecideds" in NH are Democrats... so, still tilt D.

Yeah, I'm sure if Kirk or Johnson were leading by 7, you'd totally call those races tilt D.

I wouldn't, but NVT is much more Democratic at the statewide level than WI and IL and early NH polls usually favor the GOP. Most undecideds are Democrats.

Republican successes in IL and WI have been largely contained to two very good midterm years. They haven't done well in either of those states in a presidential year in a very long time. I'm 90% sure the Democratic nominee will do a bit better in WI than NH, and 150% sure they will do significantly better in IL than NH. Kirk and Johnson have to win more crossover voters than Ayotte, and there really isn't any evidence to suggest that they'll win a plurality of the "undecided" voters.

[Xing]

I'm 90% sure the Republican nominee will do a bit better in WI than NH, and 150% sure they will do significantly better in IL than NH.

Glad we're agreeing on this.

So you think the Republican will do much better in IL than WI?

...

/You know what I meant.