Bold predictions.

[Xing]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

[Xing]

Polls have a 4-point Republican bias (due to trying to compensate for the 2014 results), and 80% of the members of this forum predict a Bush win, while Clinton actually wins by about the same margin as Obama '12. The average prediction on this site gets 6 senate races wrong: people predict that Democrats only pick up IL and WI, and lose NV. Democrats actually win IL, WI, NH, FL, PA, OH, and (due to McCain getting primaried) AZ.

How is Portman going to lose to Strickland?

As for Nevada, Heck has 49% of the vote against Masto's 35%. Even assuming the four-point bias is here already, Heck has been a much better campaigner than Masto. She's only won by depicting her opponent as more extreme than Sandoval(which was admittedly true). She wouldn't get many independent votes by pulling that against Heck.

There's a reason these are called bold predictions. Portman is favored, but it's unreasonable to call that race Safe R. Polls now are virtually meaningless, since neither Masto nor Heck have a lot of statewide recognition. I expect the Democratic candidate to win Nevada, so Heck will have to hope for a decent amount of crossover appeal. Unless Masto absolutely tanks, I can predict with 99.99% confidence that Heck will not win by double digits (though that's not a particularly bold prediciton, I'll admit.)

[Xing]

Well, I was obviously very wrong about Bush being the nominee, we'll see about whether or not the polls have any bias. Here are three bold predictions.

-Once again, people are shocked that Nevada doesn't end up being that close. Instead of acknowledging that it might be becoming a Democratic-leaning state, people will say "but it was a toss-up, and it was still foolish of you to assume otherwise!" The second a 2020 poll shows the race within 5% in NV, it's back to a toss-up in most people's eyes, regardless of any future demographic shifts.

-At least one non-freiwal state (other than Nevada) will vote to the left of at least one freiwal state.

-No more than three Senate races will go a different direction from the presidential race, but at least four Gubernatorial races will.