Yep, one poll four years out clearly shows that Nelson is toast... even though he's (ahem) ahead. If Republicans nominate a non-joke candidate, Nelson won't be completely safe, but I'd still say he's favored. Winning by 13 percent in an inelastic state like Florida is fairly impressive, even if his opponent was weak.
This poll is probably skewed towards the GOP, but leading Rick Scott of all people by 4 points does not suggest that you're invulnerable or favored against a serious candidate like Atwater - especially considering that Nelson never ran in a year that was unfavorable to Democrats. 2018 could be his first real battle.
I just said that he wouldn't be invulnerable, but even so, assuming that he'd be vulnerable to even a decent Republican is quite an assumption to make nearly four years out, based on just one poll. Also, I'm aware he won in a favorable atmosphere, but winning by 13 in an inelastic state that tilts Republican is still no easy feat.
