Predict the Next Democratic Wave

[Xing]

If a Republican wins in 2016, then 2018 (though Democrats won't make big gains in the senate). If a Democrat wins, then 2020 or 2022.

[Xing]

If a Republican wins in 2016, then 2018 (though Democrats won't make big gains in the senate). If a Democrat wins, then 2020 or 2022.

The Republicans might still have a net gain of Senate seats in 2018 even if they control the Presidency. The only Republican Senator who is vulnerable that year is Dean Heller, while on the Democratic side Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly  and Heidi Heitkamp are definately underdogs in their respective races and the right Republican candidates could take them down easily. In addition, Joe Manchin's senate seat would easily go Republican in 2018 if he retires that year. Assuming that the Republicans lose Nevada, but pick up Missouri, West Virginia, Indiana, North Dakota and Montana, they would end up with a net gain of 4 seats in the 2018 Senate elections.

With a Republican president who's somewhat unpopular, I can't see the Republicans gaining any more than three seats, and even that might be generous. In addition to Heller, Flake would be vulnerable in a wave year. The best the Democrats could hope for in the senate in 2018 would be D+1, or maybe D+2, but the wave would be in the house and in gubernatorial races. We could see more than 10 governships flip in a Democratic wave.

[Xing]

I doubt 2016 will be a Democratic wave. If Hillary wins, I think it'll be more of a "status quo" election. Also, I don't feel comfortable claiming that Democrats will definitely gain seats, though it's certainly more likely than not. I felt pretty confident that Democrats would gain governorships in 2014, but we all know what actually happened...