Oh yeah, Florida could be the tipping point vs Walker. Jeb isn't terribly strong in Colorado either though. If Hillary wins PA, FL she wins the election period.
Loses 272-266
Florida going Democratic, but Wisconsin going Republican? I really doubt that would happen without Walker on the ticket, and even then I'd be skeptical.
Anyway, these polls are, of course, very optimistic for Hillary, though it's definitely clear that Kasich and Bush have a better home-state advantage than Rubio or Santorum. I think pbrower2a is right that if Hillary loses all three of these states, she's toast (she's not going to win NC before PA). If she wins one (most likely PA), it's going to be a close race. If she wins two, she almost certainly wins. If she wins all three, she does nearly as well as Obama 2012, if not better.
