HYPOTHETICAL: Snowe

[GaussLaw]

I would vote for Snowe enthusiastically, but too bad she would probably lose against Hilldawg. She is too moderate, and would probably alienate the southern base. The map would look something like this:

Hillary Clinton: 397 EV's
Olympia Snowe: 141 EV's

How would she lose those two New England states that even have shreds of Republicans left? I'd also give her the AL in MIMAL. And Georgia. And Arizona. And Kentucky. Then it wouldn't be humiliating

She'll come extremely close in Maine and New Hampshire, but she won't outright carry the states at the end of the day.

Not even ME-2?

I could see it happening in a Snowe victory.

First of all, Snowe being seen as "too moderate" will not hurt her southern performance in the slightest. If anything, her moderate views would attract many southern suburbanites and Yankee implants. Secondly, a moderate, socially liberal Northern Republican like Snowe would sweep PA, ME, and NH. She'd also be competitive in Vermont and the Western half of Connecticut (Hawk would know better than me on this, so I might be wrong). I also assume that Snowe is moderate on immigration, so Arizona goes back in her column, and she may pick up Nevada and New Mexico. Either way, the above map is unrealistic.

Dixiecrat, do you think Evangelical Southerners would willingly vote for a pro-choice Republican?  Or would they stay home in droves?

I know that a lot of Southern Baptists believe that voting for pro-choice politicians means you have "blood on your hands."  Could this have an effect? 

I'm not sure, but since you live in Alabama, you might have a better read on this.

[GaussLaw]

Dixiecrat, do you think Evangelical Southerners would willingly vote for a pro-choice Republican?  Or would they stay home in droves?

I know that a lot of Southern Baptists believe that voting for pro-choice politicians means you have "blood on your hands."  Could this have an effect?  

I'm not sure, but since you live in Alabama, you might have a better read on this.

Most Southern Republicans are, unfortunately, low-information voters who would vote for anyone with the letter (R) next to their name. Either way, no Southerner who would not vote for Snowe because she's to moderate would be the type to even consider casting a vote for Hillary Clinton. In a worst case scenario, they'd be like McDaniel voters in Mississippi, initially extremely upset, but will ultimately hold their nose and vote for whoever's on the GOP ticket.

Slightly irrelevant, but a pro-life ballot initiative was defeated by a landslide in Mississippi, Alabama's ideological twin so most southern states, at the very least, wouldn't mind casting their electoral votes to a pro-choice candidate.

The personhood amendment is the most extreme pro-life initiative as it bans common forms of contraception.  Most pro-lifers only favor banning surgical abortions except in cases of rape, incest, and the life of the mother.  I was referring more to candidates who support keeping elective, surgical abortion legal in most cases as "pro-choice."  I am sure those pro-life initiatives would pass in MS if they added exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother, right?  And isn't Alabama significantly to the right of Mississippi due to a smaller black population?  Travis Childers could never beat McDaniel in Alabama, and no one would even entertain the possibility.  Yeah, the legislatures are similar due to the fact that Republicans have 50%+ support in both, but it seems like the personhood amendment would be far easier to pass in Alabama.  Blacks were staunchly against the amendment in MS (see the county map for this to verify) and it would be interesting to see how seriously pro-lifers take their stance if a pro-choice GOPer is on the ballot.