Republican Super Tuesday results thread (first polls close at 7pm ET)

[RR1997]

I think that Trump might severely underperform tonight.

[RR1997]

I think that Trump might severely underperform tonight.

Yeah but only if you expected him to win 50% of the vote in every state.

I thought that TRUMP would win VT and VA in a landslide, but it's really close. I think he might underperform (but still win) in most states tonight.

[RR1997]

Any races already called? Just tuned in.

What you've missed:

According to an exit poll, Kasich is only 1% behind TRUMP, despite the fact that the polls have shown a huge TRUMP lead. Kasich might actually win VT. In Virginia, Rubio is only 2% behind Trump, despite the fact that TRUMP has been leading in according to most polls. Rubio might actually beat TRUMP, but this is unlikely.

Georgia was called for Trump and Hillary. Vermont was called for Sanders. Virginia was called for Hillary. This is all you've missed. You didn't miss much.

[RR1997]

More Virginia exits, here’s the Rubio/Trump margin by demo:

men: Trump +10%
women: Rubio +5%
white: Trump +5%
non-white: Rubio +3%
non-college graduate: Trump +19%
college graduate: Rubio +10%
under $100k income: Trump +13%
over $100k income: Rubio +12%
conservative: Trump +7%
moderate: Rubio +13%
Evangelical: Trump +8%
non-Evangelical: Rubio +7%
urban area: Rubio +4%
suburban area: Rubio +3%
rural area: Trump +20%

39% would be dissatisfied if Rubio wins the nomination
53% would be dissatisfied if Trump wins the nomination
56% would be dissatisfied if Cruz wins the nomination

Who ran the most unfair campaign?
Trump 42%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 11%

That's odd. Rubio is beating Trump amongst moderates. In most states, Trump has been dominating with moderates. Trump is also beating Rubio with conservatives. Trump typically does worse with conservatives than moderates. I think this because that the moderates in VA are different from the moderates in other states. NoVa moderates hate Trump.

The huge income, education, and gender gaps aren't surprising.

[RR1997]

Cruz leads TRUMP in OK according to the exit polls, despite most polls taken before this suggesting otherwise. I'm telling you guys, Trump is going to underperform significantly tonight. Trump supporters don't actually turn out to vote.

[RR1997]

Cruz leads TRUMP in OK according to the exit polls, despite most polls taken before this suggesting otherwise. I'm telling you guys, Trump is going to underperform significantly tonight. Trump supporters don't actually turn out to vote.

Indeed, which is why Trump has thus far failed to win a single state.

Everyone was predicting that TRUMP would win VT, VA, and OK in a landslide, but this is turning out to be false. Trump isn't losing, he's still winning, but he's severely underperforming.

[RR1997]

What if Cruz wins Oklahoma, Arkansas, texas and Alaska, Kasich wins Vermont and Rubio wins Minnesota and Virginia?

If you said this yesterday, you would've been laughed at. Now this seems to be a possible scenario (politics is so unpredictable lol).

Maybe Bloomberg will win the GE after all

[RR1997]

Doesn't NOVA tend to fully report last?

Yes.

Trump is also moderately ahead, and almost all of NoVA isn't even in yet. TRUMP is going to get CRUSHED in NoVa. NoVa is going to be one of Trump's worst regions in the country. The people there are too educated. That's not good news. It's a very affluent area. I'd be worried about VA if I were Trump.

[RR1997]

Trump has a seven point lead in VA with 83% in. It's over.  Rubio isn't going to carry a single primary today.

No, it's not over.  Most of NOVA has yet to report.

It is. There are not enough NoVa voters to get Trump to lose his lead. At worst Trump wins by 2%-3% instead of 7%. Trump is still really underperforming though. Not good news for him.

[RR1997]

DONALD JOHN TRUMP

[RR1997]

Rubio now leading in VA - 35 to 32

http://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2016%20March%20Republican%20Presidential%20Primary/Site/Presidential.html

Trump is leading 35-32. It's getting really close though, like expected. NoVa is coming in, and Trump will continue to decline but still lead.

[RR1997]

Trump is leading in Virginia by 3.77% with 84.43% of the vote in.

[RR1997]

I remember all the polls showing a huge Trump lead in OK, now he's about to lose in this state. Underperforming at its finest, amirite?

[RR1997]

Trump is leading in VA by almost exactly 3% with 92.33% of the vote in.

[RR1997]

Man, what an awful night. It seems like Cruz might be the main challenger against Trump now. Rubio is done, and Kaisch probably is too. This is not good. Trump has basically locked down the nomination.

[RR1997]

Christie would be an absolutely awful VP choice for Trump. Is Trump really going to choose a man who has been involved in a huge scandal? If Trump does, he might as well concede the race to President Hillary Rodham Clinton.

[RR1997]

I'm tired of Trump's populist garbage.

[RR1997]

I wonder if a significant amount of minorities would leave this country if TRUMP were elected.

[RR1997]

Any chance Kasich can take Vermont?

I'm going to be pessimistic here. Trump will probably win

[RR1997]

Rubio will probably win MN. He's not going to drop out. Trump has locked the nomination

[RR1997]

Rubio will probably win MN. He's not going to drop out. Trump has locked the nomination

I actually think this is looking more and more like a brokered convention.

Keep telling yourself that lol.

[RR1997]

It's officially Trump vs Cruz. Pick your poison, my fellow Republicans

[RR1997]

DONALD JOHN TRUMP

[RR1997]

Bold prediction: Cruz will beat TRUMP by a large margin in Alaska.

[RR1997]

Yes!

TRUMP has heroically beat Kasich in VT. Kasich does nothing but flail his arms and rehash his Ohio record over and over again. He has no new ideas. He is the least inspiring person running for president this year. He only keeps on rehashing the fact that his father was a mailman and his Ohio record. Not inspiring at all. Not a man with any new ideas.