Cruz or Trump: Who'd lose the presidential election by a bigger margin?

[RR1997]

Cruz would do worse, as many have already suggested

Trump is not going to do well with affluent, suburban Republicans. Many of them will reluntantly vote for Trump, vote third party, even vote for Hillary, not vote, and etc. His losses with suburban Republicans can be made up by his gains with disaffected blue-collar workers, as Rfayette has suggested.

He would do awfully with Hispanic voters tho. Hispanic voters would vote over 85% Hillary. To add on to that, Hispanic voter turnout would soar. In 2012, the Hispanic turnout rate was 48%, IIRC. I could see the turnout rate rise to around 65% if Trump is the nominee.

I could also see a third party candidate earning up to 8% of the vote.

At the end of the day. Trump would probably lose. He would do as well as McCain did in 2008.

[RR1997]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

Call me crazy, but I think that the white vote will stay about the same when compared to 2012. Trump will do worse quite worse with suburban whites, but this can be made up by disaffected blue-collar workers, as I and Rfayette have already suggested. I predict that Trump will win around 60% of the white vote, which is the same percentage that Romney got.

Black vote stays about the same. I could actually see Trump improving a percentage point or two with black voters, since Trump is arguably a better candidate for black voters than Romney was. After all, Trump does have a great relationship with the blacks

I predict that black voter turnout will drop to the mid 50's (it was in the mid 60's in 2012) since Obama isn't on the ballot.

Hispanic voters will obviously not like Trump. I could see Hillary earning 80-85% of the Hispanic vote at the worst, and 90% at best. I predict that she would get 85% in this scenario. I think that Hispanic voter turnout would increase from 48% in 2012 to somewhere between 60%-65% in 2016.

Asian-American voters will also be turned-off by Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric. I predict that Hillary would earn around 80%-85% of the Asian-American vote. I could also see the Asian-American turnout increasing to 60-65%. It was 49% in 2012.

I posted a link to an interactive map on the top of this post. On that interactive tool, you can set the racial demographics to certain levels, and you can see how the electoral map would look like if the demographic were at the levels you set them to.



Trump would lose 54.6-45.4. This is comparable to McCain's loss/Obama's victory. This is obviously not including third party candidates. I think the third party candidates could get a combined total of 10% of the vote. A majority of these third-party voters would've voted for Trump if there were no third party options, thus hurting Trump even more