Trump Supporters: What the Hell Happened in Nevada? (user search)
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  Trump Supporters: What the Hell Happened in Nevada? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump Supporters: What the Hell Happened in Nevada?  (Read 1746 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« on: December 29, 2016, 07:27:53 AM »

I don't frequent this part of the forum, so maybe this has been answered. Donald over-performed polls and proved that they had a systematic sampling problem, which cancelled out the common method of using the aggregate to get past the individual firms' biases.

However, Donald often had a lead in Nevada, sometimes outside the MoE, so why did he lose it? I ask Trump supporters only.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #1 on: December 29, 2016, 01:24:37 PM »

Reid Machine maximized early voting turnout. The one "swing" state that was probably baked before Election Day. When one side turns out a ridiculous percentage of their voters and they have two weeks of in-person early voting (on top of an even longer period for mail absentees, I believe), the other side is at a severe disandvantage. This year was probably an Election Day blowout for Trump, but he still lost by several points in terms of the total NV vote.

This wasn't specific to this year, it's been a trend in the state for much of Reid's tenure. Since he's retiring in January, one would guess that some of that advantage would dissipitate. Overall it's a state that seems tailor-made for Trump (one of the highest percentages of WWC voters of any state), so it might be a reasonable target in 2020.

Is CCM inheriting the Reid machine? You would think Sandoval would be popular enough to put together a counter-coalition.
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