Let's talk about 2020

[Hamster]

Does "incumbency advantage" actually exist once a party's been in office for more than one term?

Good question. Let's pull out the relevant cases. I've set a limit at the beginning of the fourth party system (1896), when campaign methods underwent significant modernization. Green items mean the "incumbent" party held the White House, while orange items indicate the incumbent candidate lost.


1904: T. Roosevelt running for first full term after McKinley's assassination
1908: Taft running after T. Roosevelt's extraordinary popularity
1912

1920

1928: Hoover running at a moment of unprecedented prosperity
1932

1940: FDR
1944: FDR
1948: Truman with the upset
1952

1960

1968

1976

1988: Bush benefited from Reagan's massive popularity
1992

2000

2008

According to this rough picture, it seems to me like the party "incumbents" seeking a third term for their party are actually at a disadvantage, unless the precedent they are exceeded was extraordinarily popular.