EP elections 2014

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UKIP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCcaDIbwwQY

Tories: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IF45vlC5w_Y

Labour: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41_zFHcG1R0

LibDem: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuAhD5haRMA

DUP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EorSOoeS50

PC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLfj9eTz2m8

BNP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQFjJvvPUi4

Greens: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iitH2FsWarE

UUP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr3h8rnwLtI

TUV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlkJHb407rs

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Germany

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 27%
Greens 12%
Left 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

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Germany

INSA for BILD

39% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
10% Greens
10% Left
6% AfD
4% FDP
6% Others

I would guess "Others": Pirates 2%, Free Voters 1%, NPD 1%, Minor 2%

 

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Thuringia federal state of Germany

CDU 33%
Left 24%
SPD 23%
AfD 6%
Greens 6%
NPD 3%
Others (including FDP) 5%

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The latest PollWatch2014 aggregation of the polls provides this result:

EPP 212
S&D 209
ALDE 63
GUE-NGL 52
ECR 43
EFD 39
Greens/EFA 38
NI 95

VoteWatch have made an attempt to predict how the new parties will position themselves, and whether new groups will emerge: http://www.votewatch.eu/en/news.html#3944

They end up with this result based on current polls

EPP 213
S&D 209
ALDE 76
EFD 64!
GUE-NGL 54
ECR 46
EAF 39
Greens-EFA 35
NI 15

The main reason for the high score of the EFD is that they assign Grillo to that group. I still very much doubt that it will happen. I think NI is the most likely. If they are to join a group I think it would be more likely with the GUE-NGL or perhaps the Greens. Quite a lot will probably depend on the MEPs they get elected. I also doubt the placement of AfD in EFD; I think ECR remains the most likely.

Votewatch gives the following explanation:

Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs Austria EAF
Vlaams Belan Belgium EAF
Bulgaria bez Tsenzura Bulgaria NI
Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI
Akce nespokojených občanů Czech Republic ALDE
Front national France EAF
Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
Piraten Germany GUE-NGL
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands Germany NI
Freie Wähler Germany ALDE
To Potami Greece ALDE
Chrysi Aygi Greece NI
JOBBIK Hungary NI
Independent (Nessa Childers) Ireland ALDE
Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
No sirds Latvijai Latvia NI
Partij voor de Vrijheid Netherlands EAF
Kongres Nowej Prawicy Poland EFD
Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Unión, Progreso y Democracia Spain ALDE
Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
Sverigedemokraterna Sweden EAF
Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD

I would correct:

Savez za Hrvatsku Croatia NI  
Could be ECR, but as HSP AS is here, it is EFD.

Alternative für Deutschland Germany EFD
They ruled out grouping togehther with UKIP, FN and PVV, so ECR or NI.

Movimento 5 Stelle Italy EFD
Totaly open. Maby they'll find some mavericks to form a new group, maybe they'll splitt, maybe Greens, GUE, EFD, but most likely NI.

Zalo un Zemnieku savieniba Latvia EPP
Greens or ALDE

Slovenska Nacionalna Stranka Slovenia NI
EAF

Ciudadanos - Partido de la Ciudadanía Spain NI
ALDE

Democratic Unionist Party United Kingdom EFD
NI

List Verjamem Slovenia NI
Could be ALDE

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Bavaria (federal state of Germany)


CSU 47%
SPD 20%
Grünen 11%
AfD 6%
FDP 4% 
Free Voters 3%   
Left 3% 
Others 6% 

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So we have a new poll for France (yay!), besides the daily rolling Ifop who's mostly sh**t if you ask me. This one seems more on the spot, apart from the small lists that they don't quite know how to poll it seems. As always, in bold is my projection in seats for the mainland :

UMP 21    21
PS 16    14
EELV 8,5    5
Modem-UDI 8    6
FG 6    3
FN 23    22
NPA 1,5    0
DLR 3    0
LO 2,5    0
ND 2    0
EC 1,5    0
autres 7

Francophones, my short analysis here. Others, ask what you want explained. Basically, it's still neck and neck for first place between FN and UMP, and IMO both could still get it. EELV seems to get a little spark of traction, and could end up around 10, borrowing yet a few more votes from PS. PS at 16 is at least credible, though they could probably end at 14-15 bleeding to EELV. Alternative and FG are nowhere to be seen, thus staying on their hardcore base of respectively 8 and 6. The 4th FG MEP, in N-W, would still be elected with 6.2% nationally.

Is there the slightest chance for DLR gaining one seat? And if so, how could that happen? Even just hypthetical.

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Saarland (federal state of Germany)

infratest

CDU 35%
SPD 34%
Left 9%
AfD 7%
Greens 6%
FDP 3%
Others 6%

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[Enno von Loewenstern]

BW (3rd biggest state in Germany) EU poll:



AfD at 9% must be a new high ...

AfD rising everywhere allover Germany now. Most events are crowded and thanks to the membership, which belongs to the middle and upper middle class it is also financially strong. It is also helpful, that liberal media and established parties are treating them unfair by caling AfD right-wing populist or even worth. Many of the liberal-conservative AfD voterbase do not care anymore to media advise. The new high with 9% in Baden-Württemberg is a massive signal. On the same day several local elections will take place allover Gemany. In August Saxony and in September Thuringia and Brandenburg will have state elections with again great opportunities for AfD. The question, however, is whether the AFD can also consolidate. New parties are always in danger by external pressure and internal errors to disappear. The AFD has the chance to become Germany's new Conservative Party, but has yet to prove it. But it is by far the greatest opportunity to establish a new party in Germany, since the Green Party 30 years ago.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

Wasn't there a recent poll that showed AfD voters are the most motivated to vote ?

If they turn out, the party might as well get close to 10% Germany-wide.

AfD could get 10% or more, when the BILD-Zeitung and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung would support them. (BILD a rabid tabloid, which is AfD hostile and FAZ which is the paper of the conservative upper and upper middle class). But since this is not so, I expect 6% as safe, 7% would be good and more just a sensation.

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She is also Putin's poodle.

Some are called Putin's poodle and some are Obama's poodle ...

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Rheinland-Pfalz (Rhineland-Palatinate) state of Germany

CDU 42%
SPD 28%
Greens 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 5%
Left 3%
Pirates 3%
Others 5%

Although FDP, Left and Pirates are explicitly mentioned, still 5% for "Others" ...

The last nationwide poll for EP elections had 8% minor parties. If this would come true there will be much more german MEPs from minor parties and consequently less from the main parties than expected. So far I can not see that pollwatch and others identify this approximate. What could 8% "others" probably mean? A guess (and nothing more): 2,5% Pirates, 1,5% Free Voters, 1,5% NPD, 1% Animal Protection, 1% Die Partei and one or two parties around the necessary 0,5%. That would lead to 2-3 seats for Pirates, 1-2 Free Voters, 1-2 NPD, 1 Animal Protection, 1 Die Partei and 1 or 2 for other minor parties. 7-11 seats!!!

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Forschungsgruppe Wahlen

CDU/CSU 38%
SPD 27%
Greens 11%
Left 8%
AfD 6%
FDP 3%
Others 7%

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Increased speculation that DF and the Finns Party might join the ECR after the elections. Some of the moderate Tory MEPs are warning against an inclusion of these parties, but I think it's fair to say that they are in a minority in the party.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/16/conservative-leader-euro-parliament-courts-anti-immigration-party

According to rumors, AfD is not included, as Merkel has intervened (which means that Merkel leads two groups now   ) The AfD is now trying to form a group with ODS, PiS, NOVA etc. N-VA goes probably with ECR. If the Tories really take the Finns and DPP on board, UKIP will have a huge problem to continue EFD. It will be exiting to see, how the different eurosceptical forces will group in the new EP. I really would like to see a group consisting of Tories, PiS, ODS, AfD, N-VA, Finns, DPP, CU and other moderate national conservative parties.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

I doubt that the AfD, DPP and PS will join the ECR in its current form since the turkish AKP is a member of the AECR.

AfD do not need to become member of AECR, to be a member of ECR group.
The whole situation is rather unclear until now. Today, the SPIEGEL reports that the talks between AfD and the Tory MEP went well, but that Cameron was forced by Merkel to promise not to do so.
So, nothing really new.

[Enno von Loewenstern]

http://news.electio2014.eu/en/what-groups-will-form-in-the-new-ep-votewatch-europe-analysis-update/

What groups will form in the new EP? VoteWatch Europe analysis (UPDATE)

by Simon Hix, Doru Frantescu, Joan Manuel Lanfranco Pari and Michiel van Hulten[1]

 

With one day to go until voting starts, today’s PollWatch2014 prediction has EPP on the verge of victory: 217 to 201 for S&D. The updated PollWatch2014 summary tables can be found here. Based on today’s PollWatch2014 prediction the VoteWatch Europe team has considered what might happen in terms of the changing make-up of the political groups after the elections. This is by definition a speculative exercise as not all political parties have made their intentions known.

Most significantly we expect a new group to form – the European Alliance for Freedom (EAF), from the transnational party with that name – probably comprising FN from France, PVV from the Netherlands, FPÖ from Austria, VB from Belgium, LN from Italy, SNS from Slovakia, and SD from Sweden. It takes at least 25 MEPs from 7 countries to form a new group – we think EAF will reach that threshold.

ANO from the Czech Republic is very likely to join ALDE. UPyD from Spain might also fit more comfortably in ALDE than in the NI (non-attached). Despite the poor voting record match, we think N-VA from Belgium could join ECR, as some media have been speculating, partly because the alternatives are even harder to envisage. DFP from Denmark and Perussuomalaiset from Finland could also join ECR, but for now we assume that they will remain in EFD.

On the other hand, given their growing Euroscepticism, M5S from Italy is more likely to join Nigel Farage in EFD than sit with the more pro-European Greens/EFA. The politically cohesive Greens/EFA group may also not welcome such a large maverick contingent among their ranks, and as the largest delegation, M5S would oust the German Greens from their leading role.

The overall parliament would then look like this:

New EP with EAF 20 May

As for other parties labelled as ‘non-attached’ in PollWatch2014 forecasts, we assume the German Pirates could join the GUE-NGL group (as the Austrian Pirates run together with the Communist Party of Austria in the electoral Alliance Europa Anders). The ALDE group could also receive new members from the German Freie Wähler and Greek To Potami. Other parties joining the EFD group could be the Polish Kongres Nowej Prawicy and the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.

Compared to the outgoing Parliament, the new Parliament would be more polarised: with more MEPs on the radical left and on the right of the EPP. In this scenario the three potential groups to the right of EPP would have enough MEPs from a sufficient number of member states to form. EFD could emerge as the fourth largest group, GUE-NGL as fifth, ECR sixth, Greens/EFA seventh, and the new EAF group  in eighth place. This is all speculation of course. A lot of tough bargaining between parties and their prospective groups will follow the European elections. We may not know the final composition of the groups until the last week of June.

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The ARD duel between the top candidates of the European Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, Martin Schulz (SPD) and Jean-Claude Juncker, the transmitter complained miserable ratings. A mere 2.9 percent of 14 - to 49 viewers interested in the "electoral arena."

At all ages, the show came to 8.6 percent, remaining far behind the offering of the private sector. Both politicians argued on the show for a greater transfer of powers to Brussels. Candidates from other parties were not desired by the public broadcaster.

Similar shipwrecked on Tuesday and ZDF with his documentary "Contested Travel - Europe and the flows of refugees". At all ages, the film achieved a market share of just 4.8 percent. In the 14 - to 49 year olds watched 2.5 percent.

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How often have Eurosceptic/far-right parties voted together in 2009-2014?

http://www.votewatch.eu/blog/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/votewatch-europe-end-of-term-scorecard-part-3-far-right-parties-final.pdf

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Further consultations between AfD and ECR about the possible inclusion are on Tuesday. My source was trying to give the impression that the admission was safe, but I was not completely convinced. I still have the feeling that AfD is standing alone in the end. Not sure, if M5S plus some new ones are an option for them.