Has the Conservatism of the Republican Party Been Overestimated?

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Yes, basically the establishments of the religious right and the movement conservative faction eagerly peddled the propaganda that they were the true carriers of the GOP's base. The "moderate" establishment faction frantically capitulated to the Movement Conservative wing in the futile belief that the cooko beliefs of the MoCons and their passionate activists were in lines with their voting base. Essentially they got confused between the activists of their primary voter base and the more apathetic general election voters. Both resent the leadership of the party but for entirely different reasons.