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CrabCake
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Posts: 19,344
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« on: June 30, 2015, 12:49:38 PM » |
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« edited: June 30, 2015, 01:00:32 PM by CrabCake »
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Larger coalition victory; Queensland would have swing especially hard possibly reducing the ALP QLD delegation to just Rudd. Although, on paper it would only be two or three per cent lower than Rudd's share in 2013; I think Gillard would have performed much worse in the marginals (and there were a lot of big Labor names ended up in marginals that only needed a teeny coalition push - Swann, Anna Burke, Fitzgibbon, Dreyfus, even Bowen)
On the bright side, Jaymes Diaz would probably be elected, delighting us all for what would be otherwise a dark few years.
Senate wise, the coalition barely has much room to grow - maybe a handful of extra seats in QLD, TAS and VIC?? But The ALP primary would bottom to embarrassing levels, possibly increasing the level of lunatics, or as they prefer to be called in Australia, "crossbenchers". Predicting the results of Senate results is a completely useless exercise, but it would increase the chance of Labor candidates randomly dropping below the "I Love Cake" party at some critical stage at the count. It's worth noting that 2013 was already pretty humiliating for Labor, especially in WA and SA, so only a few seats would be at risk.
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