2016 Senate Ratings and Predictions

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I'm not going to go through every race, but I'll share my thoughts on the juiciest of races:

I think Kirk and Johnson are toast. Like none of this tilting or leaning Dem stuff, I just think they're boned. Johnson is mildly safer, but will only survive if the national GOP ticket blows out a victory in Wisconisn and drags him past the finishing line. Kirk is a hopeless case, to the extent even if democrats lose in some mondaleesque disaster, I still think he'll be a casualty.

Beyond that I think most Democratic chances are harder to grasp than you might think. I think Portman, Toomey, Ayotte, Burr and Blunt are, if not all in great shape, undoubtedly favoured. Weirdly, considering the state, I'm thinking Blunt is most in danger running a few points below the national ticket. Portman strikes me as too generic to really lose, but he could surprise me - I certainly expect him to outperform the Republican ticket. I honestly don't think Ayotte will face Hassan, but some random legislator and steal a win; even if democrats win her state's EV's. Toomey is the most favoured of them all, and nobody expected that - both his likely opponents seem deeply flawed. I think the sleeper race is Arizona - I think McCain is in danger in both the primary and the general, and he runs the risk of being lazy. I would be deeply surprised if anything else interesting happens. If Vitter is humiliated in his 2015 race, somebody could jump in and try their luck (doubt it work). I think Indiana will be won by Young, and the Democrats will lie unable to escape the national ticket,

The open seat in Florida is a pure toss-up as is the one in Nevada. The former I would call for Republicans due to y'know the FDP; and the latter for the democrats (the 2012 race, where the crappy democrat barely lost, means I'm sceptical of the Nevada GOP in non-Sandoval contexts.

The democrats are largely a series of snoozer races. I think Edwards may steal the race in Maryland. I think Sanchez could make a decent showing vs Harris I'd it comes down to it - an alliance of publicans and Hispanics would be pretty impressive, and she may even picque the frontrunner. I think the Republicans are dropping the ball in Colorado, and I don't see any surprise Gardners bursting Bennet's condom any time soon.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

In order of most likely Democratic to least likely: (I have no toss-ups, I find them cowardly

Hawaii - lmao, although maybe a primary

Vermont - yeah
New York - no
Maryland - open and I think it could be Cummings for the taking if he wanted it, Van Hollen without.
Connecticut - my prediction for the obligatory SHOCK MEDIA IS IT CLOSER THAN YOU MIGHT TBINK?!?!
Washington - weirder things have happened with top-two primaries
Oregon - stoned people make funny decisions
California - open, and Kampala Harris could be caught doing something bad/skeletons in closet ... Still.


Illinois Kirk is toast even in a lean Rep year. Congrats Duckworth.

Colorado - reps are screwing themselves in the butt here
Wisconsin - Johnson could get in on the back of a republican landslide, but ...
Nevada - if Angle wins primary, rockets up to likely Masto
New Hampshire - will be very close to the state's presidential result, and I think that just tilts D in a neutral year.

Florida - the fdp suck, and jolly seems to be the world's luckiest man. Tilt Jolly.
Ohio - incumbency benefits Portman, who should run in front of the GOP ticket, soz OC
Missouri - Missouri republicans appear to either be a criminal racket or a dark sitcom, but the presidential ticket should help
Pennsylvania - none of the democrats are great, and Toomey will over perform the GOP ticket significantly
Arizona - honestly I predict McCain will lose the primary an that will be the big shock result.

North Carolina - nobody good is running for Dems, incumbent inoffensive
Indiana - good dem candidate but only as wave insurance/crazy GOP winner insurance
Louisiana - lolVitter/ open seat. Very mysterious at the moment, but may be funny,

Georgia - don't care
Kentucky - I predict this will be the Kansas 2014 of this race, and everything that entails.
Alaska - and Murkowski is safe in the primary
Arkansas - wave insurance decent, but inoffensive incumbent + good state
Iowa - only if Grassley dies, and even then he might win.
Utah - lee is unpopular as f*** but Utah
North Dakota - generic  
South Dakota - generic  
Idaho - don't care
Alabama - will a democrat even run?
Oklahoma - ayy lmao