German Elections & Politics

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I don't think this is the finishing blow or anything. After all we all thought AfD was spiralling down when the ALFA split happened, and now they're bigger than ever. Fact is, aan unnerving proportion of people (although not thinking of themselves as anti-Semitism) will look past those comments as nothing, even in a country like Germany.

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If I was part of the Die Linke leadership I'd go full Cameron and demand a referendum in NATO, and when it fails say "ah well that issue can be put to rest, better enter government lol".

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Have we noted there is an amazing chance in future of a grand coalition being unable to form a majority and (if the Greens and FDP fall below threshold) having to choose between AfD and Linke as a third partner?

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Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east?

Because it's Pomerania and it's always been that way inclined.

Indeed:

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Is Michael Müller equally popular to some of the incumbents in recent state elections? I believe that the incumbent party has usually gained a few percentage points compared to the polls in most of these elections.

No, he's one with the lowest job approval ratings among all incumbents:

Woah Kretschmann. Why is he so popular anyway?

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Why is CDU popular in that one area of the East?

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So is AfD likely to continue to grow nationally? Do they have a realistic ceiling?

Also...Why have they adopted a Climate denial platform? I would have thought something like that would get laughed out of parliament in a European country. Very unfortunate to see them doing well, especially in a country that's been successful with emissions cuts. Do people blame those for the slow economy or something?

because their activists have drafted their platform, and populist-right-activists normally take their queues from America? (also global warming is one of those things that really piss off certain rightists - international cooperation, the potential you might be hindering your own economic advancement for the sake of every other country that is "winning" - like in a lot of countries nowadays, the hard-right in Germany is very declinist; believing that Germany is being taken advantage of because its naiveness and leaders caving to international (((globalists))) is very common).

As for their ceiling, well, a lot of similar parties in Western Europe have effectively become pensioner's interests parties (although like most parties, party activists are normally blissfully ignorant of their actual voters). I think their is a natural ceiling in Germany particular amongst old people, but that will probably diminish over time, especially if the AfD is professionalised like the Greens and Linke.

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The distinction is between conservationism and environmentalism. Many right-wingers adulate rural life - while urban life is a hotbed for sin and coruption, the rural areas are where the "true" country/people lie. For a nationalist, the flora and fauna are worth conserving because it is the country and the country is the most important thing of all.

Yeah, that is pretty interesting. I guess at heart most people are environmentalists somewhat, nobody really wants to see their community park replaced with a big, polluting coal power plant. Maybe that appealing to that attitude can convince more people? Either way, hopefully these groups don't end up running any governments.

tbh, the only thing really keeping the coal plants alive at the moment in Deutschland is the SPD and the unions, who are pushing for a delayed phaseout; unlike the CDU which wants to phase-out by about 2025. Howver, as SPD's only hope of getting the Chancellorship depends on the Greens, they will have to agree to a phase-out anyway.

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CDU and CSU need to split... then the CSU can merge with the AfD and the CDU can merge with the SPD, and the Left can become the new major left-wing party.

Sell Bayern to Austria

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New parties in Germany have to sit in Lantags for about a decade making sure are as dethreatening as possible before other parties touch them. The AfD will have to go through a period as Grune did before any party - even the CSU - will touch them.

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Fifteen percent is not mainstream, dumpkopf.

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I mean, I hate to use the horseshoe narrative but it's remarkable how easily that could be turned into a "the proletariat just need to wake up!" True Left screed by just changing a few words.

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The sticking issue is NATO, and also lingering discomfort over the East German legacy in Linke.

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And, of course, do not forget, that for many people the Left are still untouchable because of their history.

That doesn't hinder coalitions with the Left on the state level in Berlin, Brandenburg, or Thuringia, and it isn't really an obstacle for the federal level anymore.

The issue here is really foreign policy.

That and the person of Sarah Wagenknecht... who joined the SED in 1989 at the age of 19 shortly before the Wall fell, but is generally considered too extreme to form a coalition with. The other leaders of the Left (Bartsch, Kipping, Riexinger) are considered sufficiently moderate, but Wagenknecht is regarded as too much of an ideologue. Unfortunately, they made Wagenknecht their lead candidate for the upcoming election.

Isn't Wagenknacht to the (relative) right of her party on refugees, or am i mistaken?

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Would the FDP really want to join a left coalition? Unless they have lingering hatred of Merkel for screwing them over, and want to gain revenge by kicking her out.

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I would assume an early election, with the CsU being punished if the public views its behaviour as childish.

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Both Grune and Linke being on the threshold level could be dicey though.

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I suppose the question going forward is if the SPD wants a leftist coalition at the federal level. In which case those 6 Bundesrat votes from NRW should probably be kept in the red-green(-red) camp rather than use it as a starting point for a sozialliberale renaissance. Although I suppose a federal traffic light coalition may sound somewhat enticing as well...

Have the FDP moved leftwards in exile?

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How is the red red green coalition holding up, anyway?

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How is the red red green coalition holding up, anyway?

They could get a rather slim majority on most polls, but I honestly think Schulz would try for a Red-Green minority with some kind of agreement with the Left if at all possible. While rare, minority governments aren't without precedent federally.

Of course, another grand coalition would be easier to manage in that situation, honestly.

Sorry, i meant that Berlin coalition.

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If Petry does leave, would that hurt the party? How much of AfD's success is due to approval of her as a leader?

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those nrw numbers would instantly kill schulz.

and cologne means that there is no more "moderate" afd wing.

Well, they're gonna be the sole party with a homosexual spitzenkandidat. Doesn't that count for something?

i thought y'alls were against ~identity politics~?

the right are far shallower in their approach to identity politics than any Tumblrqueer Left Leftist could ever dream of. Like, the easiest way to get upvoted on The_Donald is to go "oh hi I'm a transgender lesbian Latina ex-muslim and I'M DEPLORABLE because PIZZAGATE etc."

Witness also this fairly embarrassing "wow, don't you want to shatter the glass ceiling by voting for Le Pen over straight white males!" that's becoming quite popular now.

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What's with the super high FDP vote?

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I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all

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It's clear that PC didn't really understand the greens in their previous compasses, viewing them as equivalent to he English or American equivalents, and they've had to abruptly change as someone finally informed them op that they were nimrods.