UK General Election - May 7th 2015

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Lol wtf Ashcroft

That 7% in Camborne & Redruth even when Goldworthy is running again ... ouch

This might sound crazy, but I think the Lib Dems have a reasonable chance of taking Watford.

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Hamilton yet again pulls out as a candidate due to dodgy expenses claims. Leopards not changing their spots comes to mind.

I wonder what happened to Kilroy-Silk btw? Has he been extracted from under the woodwork?

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 Press baron Richard "dirty" Desmond gives a large cheque to UKIP, which suggests N&S publications (the Express and Star) will endorse Farage next year. No word how this affects the editorial stance of various other Desmond brands like Red Hot TV and the sadly sold off Asian Babes.

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Kerry Smith, the UKIP candidate selected for South Basildon and East Thurrock, then pushed aside for Mr Brown Envelopes, then reselected has himself quit after the MoS obtained a recording of him joking about shooting peasants and being rude about UKIP's LGBT group.

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UKIP suspends its entire Lambeth and North Croydon branch, including perennial party switcher Winston McKenzie for mysterious reasons.

UKIP backer Stuart Wheeler is apparently the man who is desperate to keep Hamilton under consideration for selection much against the wishes of Farage. In fact a UKIP member released the offending recording of Mr Smith to the Mail on Sunday as part of this intense factional war.

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I'll presumably vote in Sheffield Hallam, amusingly enough. If I really wanted to I could vote in my home constituency of Enfield Southgate (yes, the Portillo seat), because the MP there is a smarmy nut.

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Prime Minister Ed McMiliband? It's pure fantasy

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11318945/Prime-Minister-Ed-McMiliband-Its-pure-fantasy.html

I find this article interesting of how SNP is playing up talk that they will back a Labor government so they can take away the last reasons to vote Labor in Scotland versus SNP.

Hodges is a ... strange man.

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Blair basically did a whole bunch of cosmetic changes while the real legwork in ridding the party of trots was done by Kinnock and Smith. I mean sure, I give him credit in swinging a certain breed of urban middle-class constituency towards the party - but any notion that Blair single-handedly changed Labour from a socialist party to a bunch of sell-out liberals is silly. I mean was Blair's economic policy particularly different from say, the Wilson government?

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"one Downing Street insider punt the concept of a Tory-Lib Dem-Green coalition"

lol, which insider would that be? Like one of the people who come to clean on weekends?

I think the Guardian are just trolling its userbase with that article.

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I imagine if the Greens get more attention she might become leader again. Remember when Farage stood down for some guy to lead UKIP for a while?

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It wouldn't surprise me if Scottish Labour are involved in some nefarious Producers plot to scupper the election for financial gain.

Story in the Times about a Tory candidate having an affair with a headmaster. Not particularly important in the grand scheme of things, but I was horrified to learn the phrase "Cameron's cuties" exists.

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Yes, remember the only time Romney ever seemed to be in a remotely good position in 2012 was after the first debate where he actually broke out of the pre-conceived image that formed of him.

Milliband has to be Romney (a comparison I never thought I'd make)

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caroline_Lucas

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Kemptown used to be much more left than Pavillion, but it has a) various white working-class estates that have dips in turnout and flirt with certain right-populists (expect it to have the highest UKIP vote in Brighton) b) a healthy Green/Lib split (a lot of Brighton's gays are in the western wards) and c) some affluent villages in the east.

Hove used to be very very Tory in the 80's. I've always seen it as a retirement land, but apparently the place has been degreying recently which has meant it is more competitive overall.

As for why the Greens chose Brighton to target? Who knows. Probably the gays.

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18 NI constituencies

1 Green
4 Plaid? (Perhaps he is predicting they regain Ceredigion)

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wait, they're projecting the Tories to lose Dumfriesshire and Kennedy/Moore to be dethroned? Sounds suspicious.

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I have many disagreements with the UK Greens (basically mostly on foreign policy, but I imagine they'll grow up around that issue as they mature), but I don't really think they will cause too much of a dent in Labour...

(I was meaning to effortpost on Brighton, but cba)

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increased focus on minor parties (when UKIP were surging, there was lots of grumbling amongst Greens that went along the lines of "gosh if only we had that amount of exposure".) Unfortunately their leader is a bit of a squib at the moment, none of that classic Farage, erm, "charm".

oh and hipsters

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Yes, that seems to be an enduring problem with the Canadian Greens, across all provinces. Sad (I'm even less enamoured with the Canadian Greens than I am the British ones, but FPTP locking legitimate parties out is always annoying.

Both Greens and UKIP numbers will be squeezed into realistic levels as the campaign heats up, unless Con/Lab screw up immensely. (The Liberals vote is so squeezed already into their stronghelds that it probably won't shrink further, unless Clegg endorses ISIS or something)

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I see the Greens as a negative option "Im fed up with everyone" while UKIP actually stands for something - much as we might dislike what they stand for.

both these statements are ... shaky to say the least. At the very least, the phrase "UKIP actually stands for something" particularly confuses me, seeing as the number of backflips the party seems to do. (not that the Greens won't be doing some spectacular flip-flops of their own if they pick up interest).

Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.

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Cameron has promised to: hold an EU referendum and reduce immigration next parliament. True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband.

Cameron promises an in/out EU referendum... and fully intends to campaign to stay in regardless of the result of his re-negotiation with Brussels about the terms of the UK's membership!

He also talks about reducing net immigration while in the full knowledge he can't do a thing about immigration from other EU countries while the UK is still a member of the EU. Something UKIP never stops pointing out with some glee lol

He's also using the Greens as a blatant smokescreen to avoid participating in the leader's debates. Something everyone but everyone see's through

Our dear ol' PM doesn't haven't a great deal of credibility at this moment in time...

True, the "anti-establishment" base of UKIP loathe Cameron and think he's a prick, but that will certainly be enough to swing the soft anti-leftists who fear PM Milliband

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Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!

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Here's the thing: there's a none too unreasonable chance that the greens will multiply their 2010 vote by more than six times and simultaneously lose their only seat.

FPTP, don't you love it !!

It makes elections a hell of a lot more interesting.

nah, the most interesting results come from STV

I assume you guys have all seen the Plaid-SNP-Green "alliance"? It seems they will barter in a block in a minority government - and scrapping Trident is one of their key demands (good!). Plaid, bless them, seem rather lost at the moment. Look at the next Welsh Assembly polls - they barely have improved from their 2011 drubbing, and sometimes slip below UKIP.

Chilcott inquiry will not be published before the election, despite calls by MP's.

Some criticism of Farage's health insurance policy, courtesy of UKIP's health spokesperson.

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If this election's lost because of Green voters, Natalie Bennett and Caroline Lucas deserve to be 'Nader'ed.

Are you becoming BTRD? The Greens don't have the power to tank the election. Labour seem perfectly happy to do that to themselves - as the behaviour of Murphy and various other people coming out of the woodwork demonstrates.

I'm increasingly glum about this election mainly because of Scotland.

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Oakeshott seems to want to be the Steyer of Britain, donates ££ to "progressive" Lib Dems, Labour and Caroline Lucas.

The seven sitting Lib Dems:

Norman Baker, Lorely Burt, Tessa Munt, John Pugh, Martin Horwood, Adrian Sanders and Jenny Willott

as well as the new candidates for Watford, Berwick, Winchester and Devon West (apparently he wants to decapitate Letwin or something? )

and 30 Labour newbies fighting marginals (as well as the candidate for Great Grimsby, for fear of a kipper surge.)