Think he lost the party when he *only* secured a 10 seat majority (because Tories will only really respect you if you trounce the opposition) and when he went to Brussels and came back with very little that wasn't already acquis communautaire.
Another interesting scenario is if he had stayed on after Brexit was voted.
The latter scenario would be very predictable ouster. You can't lead a cabinet in which you have no authority, you can't lead a party where you so are clearly out of favour in both the minds of the membership and the parliamentarians and you certainly can't lead a country in which you've humiliated and undermined yourself so completely.
As I understand it, it is harder to declare a Tory leadership campaign than before, but he would have seen the immediate resignation of all Leavers and soft remainers from cabinet, and a vote of no confidence.
But didnt high profile Leavers actually want him to stay on for roughly the same reason as they currently have not deposed May - didnt want to take the political bullet that could end their career. Johnson and Gove released a statement just before votes starting coming in backing Cameron. I know its worth the paper its written on in the Conservative party, but still...