2017 French Presidential Election

[Zinneke]

The most hilarious potential run-off would be Melenchon and Fillon, and I'm beginning to suspect that is the outcome. I really can't predict - but Macron's numbers have been slightly more steady than Le Pen, who seems to be draining support to Melenchon and to Fillon.

Le Pen's support hasn't changed since the start. She had 89% of her voters who said it was certainty they were going to vote for her. Her share going down is because of a sudden undecided swing towards alternative candidates.

Hence why the media are rightly point towards Macron losing voters. He still has a lot of undecided.

Would Le Pen voters even turn out in the runoff if it comes down to Melanchon and Macron?

A significant number would vote for Mélenchon (he is anti-establishment as Le Pen).

I'm not sure its a significant number and I doubt it would be enough. Remember that FN fought years against the PCF. Her core 15-18% will not touch someone like Mélenchon - the rest would more than likely stay home. Overall in the transfers only about 20% of her entire voter base would transfer to Mélenchon IIRC (the other thread with the figures got deleted). Macron actually does better as a second choice for FN voters than the others.

It would certainly make for an interesting FN internal fight as to what to do but if Marine doesn't make the second round she resigns immediately.

[Zinneke]

The Orleanist pretender to the French throne has endorsed Fillon. This changes everything!

are there more than a 100 people in whole of France that would care about it?

Monarchism has its niche, just like Assileneau's ideas, and its vocal enough to be considered larger than 100.

[Zinneke]

And it's the first time that Macron leads in this poll.

Two men have been arrested as they planed an imminent attack during the presidential elections. The candidates were advised last week. It's unclear at this point if the suspected terrorists targeted a particular candidate.

Damn, had the terrorist attack actually happened it would have been a game changer. Difficult to say who'd benefit, but I guess it'd help Le Pen and hurt Macron.

Something like that happened here in 04 and it changed the polls by around 9 points. (prediction was PP+4 result was PSOE+5 or so)

Wasn't that mostly because it turned a lot of people against the Iraq War, rather than just being a terrorist attack effect?

Correct me if I am wrong, track, but I think the reason why PP got swung by the terrorist attack was mainly because of the way they handled it too i.e blaming ETA for political gain.

[Zinneke]

Man, I was hoping that Assileneau surge would maintain. He was my dark horse for surprise small candidate.

[Zinneke]

Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates.

What is the traditional Right for you? More Giscard or more Chirac?

[Zinneke]

Macron's strength - and Le Pen's weakness - in the North West of France is very interesting imo. Shows the ways in which Macron is the most 'traditional right' of all the candidates.

What is the traditional Right for you? More Giscard or more Chirac?

It means it likes the Pope and doesn't like Parisians telling them what to do. Which makes Fillon's failure more interesting...

Who do you think they would have voted for in 2012 first round?

Also, how do you think they situate in René Remond's categories:  https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Les_Droites_en_France#Actualisation_de_2005

[Zinneke]

It seems that it was a terrorist attack.

It won't change one single vote. Too little too late

https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affaire_Paul_Voise

[Zinneke]

2/3rds of Macron voters voted for Hollande or greens+melenchon in 2012. The remaining third are split between those that voted for Bayrou and Sarkozy(mainly the LR voters that would of voted for Fillon but was disgusted over penelopegate).

Only 50% of Bayrou voters in 2012 are voting for Macron but that should not be a surprise since Bayrou voters in 2012 split evenly between Hollande and Sarkozy.

I'd love to meet a 2012 Le Pen voter who will cast their ballot for Benoît Hamon on Sunday.