2017 French Presidential Election

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

[Zinneke]

God I hate France. They get their first decent left-wing candidate in 15 years and they treat him worse than they treated the previous one...

Who are you talking about in both cases?

I understand Antonio's frustration about Hamon's predicament.

It's a year of truth, with a real right-winger as LR candidate and a real left-winger as PS candidate.

OK, and was he referring to Jospin in 2002?

Yes.

How are the two comparable though? Jospin said his own program wasn't socialist.

[Zinneke]

FRA
TER
NI

TÉ

[Zinneke]

FRA
TER
NI

TÉ

What

Royale's style of campaigning bordered on televangelism. She'd get people to repeat words, then syllables like the ones above.

[Zinneke]

Which one is Borloo's faction and why hasn't kicked them up the arse for supporting Fillon?

Also, the mention of Lagarde and UDI remants reminded me of this abomination :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyLOy7l_jP4

[Zinneke]

This debate is missing Jean-Luc Benhammias

[Zinneke]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.

[Zinneke]

especially since fillon is FAAAAAAAR more right-wing on economical issues and also dragged LR to the right.

He and his (adopted) wing of the party (Manif Pour Tous, hard conservative types) have a lot of convergence with Marion Maréchal-Le Pen and her wing of the FN though.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/le-scan/citations/2016/03/15/25002-20160315ARTFIG00166-ces-elus-lr-que-marion-marechal-le-pen-imagine-dans-un-gouvernement-fn.php

(yes, I know sorry for the source)

A lot of commentators have actually noted how Marine Le Pen's neither Left neither Right campaign backfired when Fillon was elected, because her only way to power was trying to entice the hard right of the LR into governing with her, while the 3 given candidates (Valls, Macron, Juppé) were presented as the centre-left.

Personally, I just think it has to do with her father's legacy. And her niece can try a different strategy, unless they drop the idea that it is a Le Pen enterprise a can't see tribal UMP/LR voters take them seriously as the "Gaullists" Fillipot has branded them as. Especially voters old enough to remember the OAS.

Is Marine likely to step aside in favor of her niece anytime soon though? I wasn't aware that was a possibility in the near future.  

I think she is done after this election, yeah. Before the campaign started there was a lot of unrest between Fillipot and the hardliners like Maréchal-Le Pen.
Whether MLP's niece takes over will depend on the internal party rustlings. I don't think Fillipot and all the acolytes FN has attracted stay in a party that becomes more in the JMLP mould.

[Zinneke]

So Marine's niece is a combination of Fillon's Thatcherism and social conservatism and FN's Euroscepticism? Basically what the FN used to be in the late 70s?

Yup, had some company too.





Maréchal-Le Pen though also appeals to younger edgy, Jeunesse Identitaire types who try to push the boundaries, as well as this new wave of social reactionaries behind Manif Pour Tous. Still not enough to win an election but a much more dangerous force given the influence they could have in a fragmented system.

[Zinneke]

Hahahaha:

Macron: 65%
Arthaud: 62%
Poutou: 55%
Hamon: 54%
Fillon: 53%
Cheminade: 49%
Melenchon: 43%
Dupont-Aignan: 42%
Le Pen: 38%

I'm either a liberal internationalist or a hardcore communist. I don't even know how that happened, but it placed me as super-social-liberal but just left-of-center (about right), which is far from everyone, so I guess it's not a big surprise.

I had something similar. Its just sh**tty algorithms in the case of the Trotskyites, plus I think the fact that I said Macron had more chance of winning/ was more competent.

[Zinneke]

(Surely Hamon is becoming more of a non-factor & he will collapse probably - Would Melenchon gain if Hamon withdraws because some voters may shift to Macron as well

I don't think Hamon can withdraw, as it would relinquish the hold his faction in the PS finally have over the party. They can blame the result on Hollande. While its imploding its still a usefull tool for the legislatives, as discussed previously.   

[Zinneke]

For the first time ? She's leading for the first round since 3 years.

Poll BVA

Macron: 23% (-2)
Le Pen: 23% (-1)
Fillon: 19% (=)
Mélenchon: 19% (+4)
Hamon: 8.5% (-3)

Second round: Macron 61% (+1), Le Pen 39%

YES! It's time for Hamon to dropout and endorse Mélenchon like I said almost a month ago. He is the only chance the French left has at winning the Presidency.

Méluche's campaign is a walking contradiction

• I want to abolish presidential monarchism...but I'm going to do it all by myself, screw the rest of you, I've been here longer! (he hasn't, he was in the PS for longer, where he voted for the Maastricht Treaty)
• AM I going to leave the euro...yes...no!
• I'm not going to compromise with the Right...but I'll create a Constitutional Assembly that represents the French people to draft the 6th Republic
• I'm a hardcore ecologist...look at me make a healthy vegan salad while I add some prawns to it (I stole this from Michel Onfray)
• "I´m gonna favour the periphery over the centre more with the 'maritime economy'...but let´s not forget the time I called the Bonnet Rouge movement reactionary

He'd turn out just like Tsipras.

[Zinneke]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical.

[Zinneke]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical.

What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links?

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html

Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement.

http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution

Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope"

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html

Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro.

I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin.

[Zinneke]

Reading this forum you'd think Mélenchon was going to resurrect the Soviet Union.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon is an old-style Republican Socialist. Think Jean Jaurès and Léon Blum.
He is not communist by any standard, nor do he want to start chopping heads off, or seize the means of production, or start a planned economy without property rights... And he also doesn't want to isolate France from the rest of the world, he just want to renegotiate the European treaties.

Somebody who praises people like Robespierre and supported great "Socialist" figures such as Chavez and Castro, as well as "anti-imperialist" figures like Ahmedinijad, does give people the right to be criitical.

What exactly did he say? There is something good to praise about everyone but the devil is in the details. I am sure he didn't say I support Castro's dictatorship etc! Links?

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/video/2016/10/10/ce-que-jean-luc-melenchon-aurait-fait-face-a-robespierre_5011125_823448.html

Here's a program where he tries his best to be an apologist of Robespierre, and he is also quoted as saying his old Parti de Gauche was the spiritual successor of the movement.

http://www.humanite.fr/melenchon-chavez-cest-lideal-inepuisable-de-lesperance-humaniste-de-la-revolution

Chavez was an "Indefatigable idea of humanist hope"

http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mort-de-fidel-castro-l-hommage-de-jean-luc-melenchon-rassemble-200-personnes-a-paris-1063941.html

Pays tribute in wonderful terms to Castro.

I'll get the ONPC when he talks about Ahamdenijad later. He definitely cosied up to the anti-imp movement that basically think the US is the source of all problems in the world. As evidence by his stance on Syria and his cosying up to Putin.

Robespierre was a great socialist, so that's nice, and Castro's done a lot to get his country rid of the US banna state, and improved living standards a lot and has one of the highest social developments in  Latin America, albeit the dictatorship is horrible, and that country needs to move towards being a democracy. 

What's his stance in syria, that we shouldn't bomb and air strike Syriaa?

Ahamdenijad, what did he say was good about him before before?

The point is that when his sympathisers say "muh he's not a communist", not only are they being patronising (we can all read Méluche's economic program, he is not a M-L), they are also ignoring the deeper issue that Mélenchon's foreign policy seems to be a relic of Cold War binary geopolitics, replacing Capitalism vs Communism with Western Imperialism vs Anti-Imperialism. The result is a ridiculously desperate attempt to justify any senseless, authoritarian tinpot regime that pisses off Uncle Sam, and the belief that eliminating American hegemony in Europe relies on cosying up to Russia. I wonder how Mélenchon's puff speeches over Russia in the European Parliament go down with his supporters on here?

Tirnam has already showed what his stance on Syria is : Pro-Assad, pro Russia Anti-US. He even said Putin was going to "sort out" Syria on ONPC. The same black-white world his supporters love to be nostalgic of.

[Zinneke]

Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood?

This is the french equivalent.

[Zinneke]

Ever heard of the concept of German Victimhood?

This is the french equivalent.

Exactly. A refusal to believe that the French themselves were capable of openly collaborating and coordinating with the Nazi regime and advance its own principles through them.

Please don't try to defend her words. They speak clearly on their own.

But she's not denying that Holocaust happened as u made it seem

Its denying the events surrounding the Holocaust, reducing one of the greatest war crimes in human history to a nationalist caricature of "WE WAZ INNOCENT".

[Zinneke]

It seems she really meant it in the sense that the REAL French government was in exile at the time,

If her revisionism is anything like her father's then I doubt she believes De Gaulle constituted the legitimate French government during France's period under occupation.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Its entirely deliberate. Right-wing populist parties can use this kind of rhetoric to communicate to their core militants so as to keep them from on side, but in doing so they intend attract the required headlines only for them to "moderate" their tone, so that more moderate nationalist voters at least sympathise with the end product, and buy into the idea of a left-wing bias. Then you have her apologists (all the way from Florida these days!) invade the forums, etc trying to do you on factoids, when they have never even watched the FN documentaries from the 70s and 80s.  

Le Pen previously did this on education for migrants. She first claimed she would ban education for all new migrants. Gets the headlines desired, gets invited on a TV panel, and says she meant only for illegal migrants. Its a clever tactic, as even if you disagree with the latter policy you still buy into the victim complex. When Le Pen does it its considered abhorrent because of her family name and her party's history, but the reality is its becoming widespread and not just on the extreme Right. Anything for more air time.

The real news though here is that Marine Le Pen has started to sound like her father again. It is indeed surprising that she is bringing up the WW2 revisionism.

[Zinneke]

I see Le Pen is rolling out some tried and tested Holocaust denialism today...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/politics/articles/2017-04-09/le-pen-says-france-not-responsible-for-nazi-s-vel-d-hiv-round-up

No she's not. She said she believed the French were not responsible for rounding up Jewish citizens for the Germans. That's not denial of the Holocaust. That's denial that France did anything to contribute to it.

As the article says, she was wrong, but what she said was nothing close to Holocaust denial.

Which is a lie, Vichy France willing supported the Third Reich and aided in the deportation and extermination of Jewish people.

She didn't deny this.

She said France as a national conscious is not responsible for La Raffle.
France's elected chamber gave Pétain full executive powers.
There were also a large number French people who collaborated.

As a whole, if you want to be a jingoist about your own national history, You can't just pick and choose which events suit your historical narrative as to what constitutes action by your national consciousness and what constitutes actions by the individuals responsible. Its like the Belgians here who say Congo was the King's property ergo it wasnt our fault, why should we care, etc. Complete hypocrisy.

 if you are so proud of your flag, you accept the blood spilt on behalf of it too.

@pariochial, i am on my phone so its hard to google but a good show i reccomend is atelier du pouvoir on France Culture. There is an episode on it called "Dans la tête de Jean-Marie Le Pen" where he and an FN historian discuss the formation of the party, as well as his interpretation of WW2 history.

[Zinneke]

Why hasn't Poutou dropped and endorsed Mélenchon? I understand where it wouldn't matter if he didn't look likely to win, but now that he's breaking 20 that extra 2% could go a long way.

Sectarianism.

Also, Poutou indicated that his official stance was not to endorse Hollande back in 2012*, and specifically the NPA (mainly composed of the old LCR) want nothing to do with concepts like a Mitterandiste united Left.

*He still ended calling to vote against Sarkozy.

[Zinneke]

Nobody drops after the official slate of candidates has been established. Period. So stop speculating about what if X or Y dropped or why doesn't Z or K drop. It's not a thing we do. Learn the rules if you want to participate in this carnival.

Oh chill out zanas, it's a simple question (and, given that one left-wing minor candidate dropped out to endorse another candidate less than two months ago, a naturally occurring one). Hash answered it more than adequately. No need to get all high and mighty about it.

I think Hash's answer applies more to Sarkozy than to a guy who is a testimonial candidate.

[Zinneke]

The whole place is one giant Midwest.

hahahaha wtf

And I thought the comparisons to Texas were crazy.

Emigration is a real issue in France though, I think the only two to have mentioned it are NKM in the primary and Macron.

[Zinneke]

The lifelong RPR/UMP/LR voters will decide they don't care about corruption after all and come home just in time for Fillon to get to the second round with 22-23% of the vote. I'm calling it now.

Yep, with those margins I think this is what will happen too.

THey listen to Zemmour enough for them to collectively decide that way.

[Zinneke]

Hamon voters needs to stop wasting their vote if we want to win this thing over the three undesirables. They are absolutely blowing this for us. How can they be so short-sighted.

Payback for 2002.

[Zinneke]

The issue salience has really been as divided as the electoral field, and that has really harmed Panzergirl. Her father basically got through in 2002 because of the public security issue salience that exponentionally built up to the very final day. But she has failed to frame this as globalist elite vs the People issue which could have gone far IMO, and I have barely heard about the Rassemblement Bleu Marine that was supposed to federate the souverainistes. Instead she's spent way too much time talking about the intricacies of her EU plan. She's ran a poor campaign considering the circumstances. You really wonder what the FN could have achieved under Bruno Mégret rather than the Le Pen family enterprise (and shudder).

The fact that the campaign also revolved around Pénélopegate for a long while didn't help. But then what is to blame for this? The very party system that the French people will hopefully vote against, with their primaries and factionalism. Good ridance.