Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Zinneke]

Scexit just became the Status Quo move, to a large extent. That's what the change is.

Northern Ireland probably won't happen, just because there's no way that one doesn't end bloody.

More precisely, Northern Ireland requires cross-community consensus.

[Zinneke]

What's the point in polling after such an emotional event? Eventually everything will settle down and any sort of 2nd referendum will be far closer than people might think.

Actually, i think a recession and another, more right-wing, eurosceptic Tory government would almost certainly increase the prospect of independence. Remember a small part of the Scottish socialist and radical elements are in favour of Brexit in order to strengthen the Scottish parliament (that was the main OUT campaign's argument). But I can only see that happening in a federal UK, which the Tory Right won't allow.

 

[Zinneke]

I imagine there will be a lot more 'official' support this time. As IAC says, it's not difficult to imagine Labour and the Lib Dems flipping to neutral or anti-union. Sane with the trade unions, business groups, universities and the major newspapers.

Yeah, but does that actually matter though?

Of course it does. Plenty of people vote with their institution and not with their head.

[Zinneke]

May edging towards doing The Full Rajoy.

Rajoy says the referendum has to be country-wide.

I think the British Tories are much much less passionate about unionism than the Spanish Populares, partly because the Populares know that the Catalan issue helps them stay relevant whereas the Tories have no stake in Scotland.

However, I think May is one of the few who is passionate about the Union, and Sturgeon is exploiting that to bang the nationalist war drum. Ganesh of the FT was on to something when he said this was a move designed to strengthen the SNP's support after a rough time.