French regional election - December 6 and 13, 2015

[Zinneke]

I think low turnout in France is usually because the causal centre-left people have given up on politics for the time being.

So it will help FN for sure.

[Zinneke]

Wow, Estrosi got destroyed by Panzerbaby.

Well, was more or less expected for the 1st round.

Everything seems like expected in the polls then...

Except maybe the fact that Marine manages to make it still bigger than expect in the North.

So brilliant...

Can't wait to see IdF.

They were neck and neck a week ago, and I don't think PS voters will ever mobilise for someone like Estrosi.

PS in Pas-de-Calais has already implicitly endorsed a fusion.

[Zinneke]

Will FG or EELV call on their supporters to vote for PS in the second round?

EELV will, FG probably depends on the local actors.

[Zinneke]

  I wonder if this electoral debacle for the Socialists will encourage them to push through a change to proportional representation for National Assembly elections. IIRC that's what happened during Mitterand's first term, when to avoid a total electoral debacle in the 1986 National Assembly elections, PR was introduced.

No.

For one, proportional representation would have meant 20% of the parliament in FN hands and likely a hung parliament with PS-UMP as the only possible coalition.

Also, the current system benefits them far more than a proportional represenation system, largely because they siphon EELV and some FG votes in the second round. I imagine some centrist LR will also back them in the event of a PS-FN duel in the next legislation.

Also, have a look how many in the British Labour Party want a proportional representation system. Similar system to France.

This is actually a really good result for PS given the circumstances. They will hold on to their core and ride out the Hollande sh**tshow. They are still up there with UMP and FN, although most of the time 3rd. More importantly, the far left are nowehere.