Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Pim Fortuyn was hardly "every man and his dog".

Dutch intelligentsia is full of Fortuyns.

That;s besides the point. He inspired all the egomaniacs in Holland (i.e a lot) that they could set up their party and achieve power. Maybe get shot in the process.

[Zinneke]

I fear you're getting ahead of yourself in your barely concealed dislike of the Netherlands.

Holland =/= Netherlands, believe it or not

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a) they have, 81 parties on the ballot this time round
b) The pillar system has been totally undone, first by the D66-VVD wave, then the LPF wave. Compared to Belgium there is much more party competition.

[Zinneke]

No, it is not true that there are 81 parties on the ballot. Again, you're misinformed but think you're informed, which seems to be a recurring pattern. 81 parties registered themselves with the Electoral Council, but only 28 of them have managed to meet the criteria to get on the ballot, which, while a lot, is the same number as in 1971 and 1981.

Granted, but it doesn't change my point that 81 parties are at least seeking to be elected to parliament, which a lot compared to other countries, which was the query (how come the Netherlands have so many parties given the low electoral threshold - the question answers itself). And yet, i contend the LPF had a massive effect as to what these usually local movements (his was the Leefbaar movement) could achieve.

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that's my main point, and I don't think that is a negative thing.

I am not saying that there a more egomaniacs in the Netherlands, I mentioned Holland, which I think gets an equal amount of chauvinistic banter from both the Belgians and our occupied provinces in Southern Netherlands. And even then I wasn't being serious, and I think most people can recognise this. You can take these jokes personally if you want.

I don't hate the Netherlands. I actually think 1830 can be interpreted retrospectively as a strategic mistake if a necessary one at the time due to under-representation. I also think we should co-operate with it more on a lot of issues, but that's not important for this thread

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The PVV is not a serious party, when its executive is quite literally composed of only an egomaniac and his own registered company. I think a party that had as its name the ''List <Party Name Leader>'', and broke up once he sadly disapeared from the scene, can be considered an egomaniac's project too.  

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I find it hilarious that a person who will be voting for the PVV and cheerleads Trump to bulldoze palestinian homes is going to lecture me on political correctness.

I love the Dutch electoral system, and the crazies its produced btw. Would take it here for the federal level in a heartbeat. We've only really had people like Dedecker to compete.

[Zinneke]

I honestly don't understand why the Dutch here are complaining, when they have a test lab downstairs from them that has reduced the common national interest (which is what is being voted for here, the formation of a unitary parliament representing every strand of the Dutch people, including the ones I dislike, like the SGP) to constituencies. It has been an unmitigated disaster in Belgium.

The issue of governance is a non-starter for me. Yes, the NL has had a lot of government collapses, but the NL is not a France, UK or Germany where you need a 1-2 party majority in order to govern such a large economy and military capability. Furthermore, parties that collapse governments in the lowlands always tend to suffer : LPF collapsing Balkende 2003, PvdA 2009, PVV 2012 then Open Vld here in Belgium. De Croo Jr basically ended his political career by collapsing Leterme I. In the NL, both VVD and PvdA knew this term that they had nothing to gain from a government collapse, with both projected to have a net seat loss. Eventually kids grow up.

The issue of distance between politics and citizens : name me one other country in Europe where a citizens movement like Leefbaar movement can turn itself (albeit through personalisation) into the 2nd political force of the country. Also, this is a phenomenon recorded in FPTP countries like the UK : ''Westminster Bubble'', ''Brexit is a bloody nose for the elite'' etc. Most of the MPs in the UK parliament still voted with the party whip rather than what their constituents wanted in one of the most divisive referendums in history. This is everywhere, the electoral system has nothing to do with it.

Simply having elected representatives from your constituency will just lead to regionalism, which leads me to my next point. As evidenced in Belgium and Spain, its not just regionalist parties that profit from electoral districts, its the mainstream behemoths too, who consolidate their bases and/or compete with the regionalists by surrounding their economic program with regional-based promises (''Bring back the coal mines to Wallonia'' - ''PSC-PSOE are the only ones who will keep the Francoists out of Catalan law''). THe D'hondt system combined with the electoral districts in Belgium has created micro-regionalist interests, and essentially created quasi-confederalism when negotiating our government formations in what is still supposed to be, constitutionally at least, a federal country.

NL has the least worst system. 1 man, 1 vote, low threshold. for a parliament that represents the national interest. Makes elections like these with everything to play for worth reporting on too.

EDIT : German system a close second, but it still allows for stuff like the CSU.

[Zinneke]

PvdD : 71%
SP: 70%
PvdA : 67%
GL : 67%


btw, bit of a storm brewing with Wilders tweeting a photoshopped picture of Pechtold in an Islamic demonstration in London. He is trying to out-trump Trump by retweeting people who believe him, essentially trying to create an internet meme of Pechtold being an islamist.

http://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20170206_02715319

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

70% of Dutch Turkish voters actually voted for the AKP in the last Turkish election, with 46% turnout. Haven't noticed any real outrage outside the right-wing internet sphere. Your point being?

Not really my point. We discussed that issue and I don't think we need to revisit it, particularly as one person is personally concerned.

My point is slightly different that there was a lot of media scrutiny over ex and even current AKP members/supporters in the ranks of GL (that were, rightly imo, expelled, but for the superficial reasons) and then the furore over DENK. Wilders meanwhile has a lot of foreign backers from his trips abroad, namely neo-cons from the US or affiliates. And now I see he has ex-members of foreign parties who wish to seed discord in our own communities. No uproar like the AKP-GL councillor.

Its becoming really hard to distinguish whether this some kind of cross-national political movement or whether its a genuine conflict of interest when you are funded by foreign backers.

[Zinneke]

VVD are done in The South* of the mid terms are anything to go by. Only Venlo seems remotely pro-VVD beacon due to all the medium-scale business there. I'm not sure Rutte can win over Limburgers over a local VVD voice. It makes me wonder if they seem still somewhat tribal over there to you guys. Stevaert on the this side of the border is an example of that, getting lifelong CD&V/CVP voters on board at the turn of the century, and probably has bigger name recognition in Dutch Limburg than some Hollander parliamentarians. It'd be interesting to see what scores Limburgers get in Limburg compared to other provincial loyalties.

*which makes Flanders the Deep South and Wallonia Mexico. Makes sense I guess.

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

[Zinneke]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

Yes, sound arguments but I'm still not so sure any of the other left-wing parties would want to associate themselves with Rutte after PvdA's experience. For example, I think the way GL can ''get away'' with an alliance with VVD with their electorate is by making Rutte a sacrificial lamb, because he is now undoubtedly the leading figure of right-wing politics. Sometimes gunning down one of the enemy's big hitters is enough for our electorate, unfortunately.

Also, addressing the PM question, if we are headed for a 5 party coalition I think the CDA would be ideally placed, no? Bruma is a bit of a wet flannel who lacks Rutte's leadership skills, but as I said above I can't imagine a situation where GL or even PvdA let VVD cling on to the premiership. If PVV win a plurality then the ''rule'' that the most votes gets to be PM goes out of the window.  

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

Is that not linked to the fact that Rutte has shown undoubtedly good leadership of both his party, his coalition and in some cases, admittedly, his country? What is mean is, trustworthiness for some people is a safe pair of hands rather than not being guilty of quasi-criminality?

[Zinneke]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

Because of what DavidB said + the average left-wing voter probably doesn't know about VVD internal politics and just wants Rutte gone. But I agree that they also probably want the whole of the VVD gone which will be unfeasible.

I may also be basing myself too much on our coalition practices. Like how there were almost always 3 PM candidates from xy parties that are ''black balled'' by coalition partner z during negotiation process due to their unpopularity with z party's electorate. In the NL's case, I think they know what their electorates would accept, and I doubt its Rutte appearing on the radio every friday as PM again.

The PM position could be negotiated this time round because otherwise Wilders would be the candidate if he ''wins''. The fact that VVD can't go into this election saying they have won is a loss for Rutte in itself. The balkanisation of this election is hiding the fact that this is a pretty strong anti-incumbent vote.

[Zinneke]

CDA voting against crime reduction and richer farmers, right ?

[Zinneke]

David, doesn't the municipals show that Wilders has the capability of attracting national attention without entering what his voters consider to be the establishment tricks. The guy stood in 2 cities, got a joint plurality in one and still managed to dominate the headlines. I doubt he is worried about the debates meaning that he will stay out of the limelight.

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

[Zinneke]

Looks like PvdD are going to take Wilders' place in the debate because the devout christian party leaders can't work on Sundays.

Prediction: PvdD will be second in the polls next week..

Jesse and Marianne as the Dutch powercouple.

*drools*

[Zinneke]

Is the 50+ party generally seen as leftwing or rightwing?

Neither. Its a boomer party with boomer values.
For its worth, some members high up on their list are ex-PvdA, CDA, and FNV (trade unions), and a banker. I think they've long abandoned their ideologies though.

You'll have to ask DavidB about their voters because I have (thankfully) never met any.

[Zinneke]

So I listened to the radio debate. Klaver stole the headlines by asking Asscher if he would renounce working with the VVD again and turn towards the left parties instead. Asscher gave a condition for working the GL : tougher stance on immigration and integration. He then called Klaver arrogant. Later, when asked who he'd prefer working with, Klaver said the SP. Others :

SP : GL
PvdA : GL
SGP : CDA or CU
CU : non-answer
50+ : SP ("only party that makes 65 65 again")
CDA : non-answer. I think he quoted the Bible to remind us he is Christian.
VVD : D66 and CDA (expected)
D66 : "even with the SP" (D66 in one phrase right there)



Otherwise it was a very awkward first debate. Van der Staaij is probably the one who came out best (made Rutte squirm on defense spending despite both agreeing on the essence) but his ceiling is still limited. Who knows, maybe more intellectual Wilder supporters might flock to him.

[Zinneke]

https://www.noties.nl/v/get.php?a=peil.nl&s=weekpoll&f=2017-02-26.pdf

New polls. 50+ falling towards PVV. FvD and VNL rising from PVV. The former FvD in particular are trying Wilders-lite style tactics, attracting headlines for weird stunts.  I think a lot of people like me would much prefer them than PVV though, so they may be just be being pushed by ''The Elite''(despite FvD attacks on the NPO) as a way to split the PVV.

(can someone post the image?)

[Zinneke]

why isn't there a proud, european right-wing party, which is at the same time against radical islam and russia's neo-imperialism? it baffles me.

The PVV are pro-Atlanticist/anti-Kremlin --

I'm not sure those two stances are compatible anymore.
Wilders just prefers to travel to the US and have his policies dictated to him there.

[Zinneke]

why isn't there a proud, european right-wing party, which is at the same time against radical islam and russia's neo-imperialism? it baffles me.

The PVV are pro-Atlanticist/anti-Kremlin -- and yes, FVD are definitely too Kremlin-friendly in my opinion.

Will be watching the debate tonight (if RTL broadcast it online, that is).

http://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nederland/politiek/livestream-2100-uur-rtl-rode-hoed-debat

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the link. The idea that Wilders has "his policies dictated to him" is nonsense, though -- completely unsubstantiated. As I said, people donate to his party because they like his views. The PVV's continued insistence on a ban on ritual slaughter may be the best proof that the party isn't willing to budge for its potential donors (I sure wish it were different on this issue...).

Hey, remember when Wilders, much like Farage, had a much broader focus on policy issues rather than STOP ISLAM AAAAAH and an A4 sheet for a manifesto, as he actually tried to build a serious RWPP a la Fortuyn. Remember when he came back from the US with a bigger bank account after meeting the neo-cons? Put two and two together...If it was a left-wing populist and the USSR 30 years ago we would all know how your type would react.

Anyway, lets watch the debate,

[Zinneke]

Yeah, this sort of conspirational stuff doesn't fly with me. There is also a difference between the USSR and the U.S., and between private donors and a foreign government.

The point of sovereignty and national security is ensuring that foreign actors do not determine your policy through force or through covert action. Clearly whether the foreign actor is a government or not is irrelevant. Ideologies like Marxism and whatever yours will be called in 20 years time (alt-right I don't know) are just vehicles for actors to take over our countries.

Before the eurosceptics start shouting, The EU is another matter. The system was also designed for small countries like ours to not get dominated on a chessboard with France and Germany, and essentially have to pick sides. Furthermore, its legal character is still that of a trading block with security cooperation methods that are entirely a la carte, and the power still lies with the elected national governments.

The Euro is also another matter, I'm more on the eurosceptic side with the Euro, because I believe currency should be a policy instrument and not determined by technocrats with institutional liberalism who haven't successfully modeled money in the economy yet. But let's not also pretend our currencies were somehow manageable and independent in the pre-Euro era.

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Yup, and he just called Roemer Asscher. He looks uncomfortable though.

[Zinneke]

Ascher looks and speaks like a cartoon character.

All candidates agree that Islam is not a threat to Dutch identity. Its a poorly phrased question. Bruma is right, the issue is religious extremism, but there you see the effect of Geertje.

Klaver exposing Christian extremist hypocrisy when it comes to the question though. Against gay marriage, against equal rights for women. Same intolerance different religion. EDIT : and now Pechtold too.

[Zinneke]

Buma: "Why do you not support locking up jihadists coming home?"
Klaver: "The CDA were against gay marriage, the KVP were against the right to women's self-determination"

Full edgy internet atheist

We are forgetting that we are also capable of ''backwards'' mentalities, and it was the Left who had to stick up for women and gay rights, not Wilders', and certainly not Bruma's gang. That's what Klaver was saying.

Its a response to this insinuation that the Left are a fifth column for religious islamist conservatives. You half-quoted Bruma.

The current CDA and it's voters fully supports gay marriage. There have been multiple homosexual/lesbian CDA ministers. CDA opposed it in 2001, but the majority of the VVD MP's including the leader Bolkestein opposed gay marriage in the 90s (they did vote for it in 2001 though). So it's cheap to attack CDA over this imo.

See above. Plus what Pechtold and Asscher said : Dutch identity as it stands is not to be determined by politicians. Bruma still sticking to the Christian argument is just pandering to the missing elephants in the room.