Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

Yeah, well, one day he will grow out of it. Its best just to ignore the total hypocrisy of the alt-right. They will make their own bed and lay in it. I just hope they go back to being non-voters when they realise its a sham.

[Zinneke]

wilders is responsible for the bad image he has got as an ally.

he burned those bridges with conservative and right-wing parties himself.

I'm not really interested in this discussion, but know that this is not a clear-cut fact; it is highly debatable. I personally think it is partly true but much more nuanced, with the CDA also sharing a big part of the blame.

Yes, the CDA do deserve blame for letting the clown out of the box in the first place.

How are they responsible for the fall of Rutte I though?

[Zinneke]

That raises an interesting question. What are the parties with the biggest and smallest differences between the leadership and the rank and file support?

IMO (but the Dutchmen will know better than me) from most to least distant :

PvdA
D66
VVD (rank and file are more right)
CDA (rank and file more left)
GL-SP*
PVV
The religious parties
PvdD

*hard to say about these guys because they are ideologically consistent with the voter base but their leaderships do their back door deals in ivory towers, especially SP.

[Zinneke]

Yes, my post was meant for the memberships, but you are both right to make the distinction, especially given the geographical differences you have too that can distance the membership from the voters. We could go through them too.

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This post is spot on, and what is quoted here is the feel I get too. Also, for example, D66 has been the main benefactor of the PvdA collapse in Hollander inner cities like Utrecht. There is a clear PvdA-D66 swing, but I feel these new D66 voters will soon realise that Pechtold is VVD-lite and they will go back to PvdA (just not under Ascher). I think the new pragmatic D66 voters are social democrat middle class university types at heart but more right-wing economically, they just can't bring themselves to vote for VVD, and felt betrayed when PvdA allied with VVD.

Rutte is the main target of Pechtold though, which might keep the D66 new voters and membership on board until March. I don't think the two like each other, especially given Rutte's answers on Het Oog on Friday. I think Pechtold really wants to take over Rutte's mantle as the leading liberal figure in Europe, painting Rutte as a neo-con fraud.

D66 are the party that are critical of everybody before the election but are willing to co-operate with anybody afterwards, so they will more than likely still form up with VVD and CDA. But I think they are the ones more likely to be pissed off and in internal strife during the coalition.

[Zinneke]

To what extent are those statistics prelavent in other Dutch parties though, if not the whole of Europe? We have clearly shifted rightwards, and the refugee issue probably exacerbated that.

[Zinneke]

Its hard to tell if you're serious with Poe's law and all that, but I will throw you a bone anyway :  if you consider the Muslims to be a problem yet don't understand that the basis of their intolerance against gays and Jews is religious conservatism, then I have to assume that you think the problem has actually nothing to do with the fact that they are Muslims and something to do with previous or current material conditions they lived in. Congratulations, you're more Marxist than you think.

[Zinneke]

Then its not a problem with Islam, it with the wrong doers particular culture. I could be an anti-workerist and attribute to their working class culture, or their excessively communatarian culture (i.e lack of individual responsibility, which is what Rutte is contributing to the debate). Its just way too easy to always use the culture card to explain everything though. That goes from the materialist left argument that looks to excuse even petty crime because someone was poor, to the nationalist right and their exclusivist arguments against multiculturalism. We're back at basic, primal securitisation in the latter's case.

[Zinneke]

Great maps, Al!

David, have you decided what party you are going to cast your ballot for?

Yes, for the PVV. I want mass immigration and EU integration to end. I have my disagreements with them and am pessimistic about the party's chances to achieve anything, but it's not as if there's a better option or one that would achieve more.

Hi, just wondering if anyone has a link to box results from the 2012 election?

What do you mean by "box results"?

Results for each ballot box (or at least areas smaller than muncipalities)

If you go on the municipal websites they somwtimes have an archive of all the election per ballot box

If you are non dutch, Google "gemeente <city name>" and look for verkiezingen (usually under something like "bestuur"). When I have the time I could post the data here but its a nightmare trying to sum all the ballot boxes into one district so its of little value to non-residents anyway.

[Zinneke]

How did CU get in the adult debate but SGP and PvdD did not?

[Zinneke]

How did CU get in the adult debate but SGP and PvdD did not?

More seats in parliament, more seats in the polls. I also think 50Plus would get into the adult debate before either of SGP and PvdD because of the polls. Thank G-d that didn't happen.

I am no fan of 50plus either but for the last couple of months 50plus has been consistently higher in the polls than CU. so, according to the polls 50plus should have been in the adult debate.

I imagine the main difference is that CU do not campaign on single issues, unlike 50+.

If the format is like the provincials then the attacking party who is selected first get to choose which issue is discussed in the debate vs the "defending" party. Then the second rounds allow the ones who defended to pick their issue.

With 50+, PvdD and even to an extent the SGP and Denk, this format doesn't work.

[Zinneke]

Here's a thought: would PVV be doing better or worse if it had the same issues etc but was led by a more bland-Hofer like individual than the divisive Wilders? (Ignoring of course that a PVV without Wilders wouldn't actually be the PVV)

Wilders is what keeps the party in the headlines. They have no other party structure or strategy that doesn't revolve around Geert Wilders.

Another party has already done better than Geertje without his antics : LPF. Another 1 man show, only the 1 man was considered smarter and more diplomatic than Wilders. Whatever legacy he'd have left, would be leading by 10 seats more.

[Zinneke]

I agree with others here that DENK are probably getting in; VNL and FVD are the only other ones who have a remotely realistic shot of getting in, but that's probably not happening anyway.

I wrote this for another, slightly less serious website on the parties that are on the ballot yet weren't elected in 2012. Don't shoot.

12. Ondernemerspartij: if you're not yet sick and tired of former PVV MP and known alcoholic troublemaker Hero Brinkman ("Drinkman"), who now pretends to stand up for small businesses' interests. Electoral potential: 0
13. VNL: if you agree with Wilders but don't think he has the best words -- a drunk like Jan Roos is obviously more sensitive -- and also want tax cuts. Electoral potential: 35% chance they get in.
14. DENK: if you think Erdogan is actually p cool. Electoral potential: 90% chance they get in.
15. NIEUWE WEGEN: if you're a social democrat fed up with the PvdA who wants less EU and, as opposed to the SP, less immigration, but you don't like Wilders for some reason. Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
16. Forum voor Democratie: if you're highly educated and like your party leader to lie on a piano and pretend his party is the new D66 while it's really a cheap copy of the PVV (but pro-Putin and pro-MRA). Electoral potential: 25% chance they get in.
17. De Burger Beweging: if you don't like the financial system but you also can't write proper Dutch. Electoral potential: 0
18. Vrijzinnige Partij: if you want a universal basic income and you think someone who split off from 50Plus is the man. Electoral potential: 0.
19. GeenPeil: if you think it's a good idea if MPs just vote on the basis of random open internet polls -- what could possibly go wrong? Electoral potential: <5% they get in.
20. Piratenpartij: if you think privacy is cool, or if you just think parliament would look better with a fetish model in it. Electoral potential: <5%.
21. Artikel1: if intersectional feminism is really your thing. Electoral potential: <5%.
22. Niet Stemmers: if you're a non-voter but you're voting anyway? Electoral potential: 0 (come on, their voters aren't voting...).
23: Libertarische Partij: if you think this country should become much more FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE BUT SOCIALLY LIBERAL. Also my first electoral love; 2012 parliamentary election, never forget Electoral potential: 0 (they even lost me lmao)
24: Lokaal in de Kamer: if you're a local, probably corrupt politician and you figure national politicians are spectacularly unpopular so why not try? Electoral potential: 0.
25. JEZUS LEEFT: if you think Jesus is alive? Electoral potential: 0.
26. StemNL: if you want to vote on issues instead of for parties and candidates. Electoral potential: 0.
27. MenS and Spirit/Basisinkomen/Blah blah blah: if you think homeopathy works, we should work on our chakras more, vaccines may not work, etc. Electoral potential: 0.
28. VDP: if you're a Turk, hate Jews and gays, and think DENK are cucks for even pretending to be inclusive. Electoral potential: 0 (thank f**k)

Not on the ballot this time and sorely missed are SOPN (anti-chemtrail party; still got more votes than the LP in 2012...), IQ Partij (openly racist party by a guy with an insane German accent who thinks Ashkenazi Jews are dangerous) and the LibDems (someone who has too much money but is antisemitic too).

I love how the Netherlands has PR with no threshold and they still have more fringe parties than most Western countries.

The whole point is that any man and his dog can found a party and lead it to be the largest in the NL. Because there is PR with no threshold. See my post above and the LPF.

[Zinneke]

Pim Fortuyn was hardly "every man and his dog".

Dutch intelligentsia is full of Fortuyns.

That;s besides the point. He inspired all the egomaniacs in Holland (i.e a lot) that they could set up their party and achieve power. Maybe get shot in the process.

[Zinneke]

I fear you're getting ahead of yourself in your barely concealed dislike of the Netherlands.

Holland =/= Netherlands, believe it or not

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a) they have, 81 parties on the ballot this time round
b) The pillar system has been totally undone, first by the D66-VVD wave, then the LPF wave. Compared to Belgium there is much more party competition.

[Zinneke]

No, it is not true that there are 81 parties on the ballot. Again, you're misinformed but think you're informed, which seems to be a recurring pattern. 81 parties registered themselves with the Electoral Council, but only 28 of them have managed to meet the criteria to get on the ballot, which, while a lot, is the same number as in 1971 and 1981.

Granted, but it doesn't change my point that 81 parties are at least seeking to be elected to parliament, which a lot compared to other countries, which was the query (how come the Netherlands have so many parties given the low electoral threshold - the question answers itself). And yet, i contend the LPF had a massive effect as to what these usually local movements (his was the Leefbaar movement) could achieve.

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that's my main point, and I don't think that is a negative thing.

I am not saying that there a more egomaniacs in the Netherlands, I mentioned Holland, which I think gets an equal amount of chauvinistic banter from both the Belgians and our occupied provinces in Southern Netherlands. And even then I wasn't being serious, and I think most people can recognise this. You can take these jokes personally if you want.

I don't hate the Netherlands. I actually think 1830 can be interpreted retrospectively as a strategic mistake if a necessary one at the time due to under-representation. I also think we should co-operate with it more on a lot of issues, but that's not important for this thread

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The PVV is not a serious party, when its executive is quite literally composed of only an egomaniac and his own registered company. I think a party that had as its name the ''List <Party Name Leader>'', and broke up once he sadly disapeared from the scene, can be considered an egomaniac's project too.  

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I find it hilarious that a person who will be voting for the PVV and cheerleads Trump to bulldoze palestinian homes is going to lecture me on political correctness.

I love the Dutch electoral system, and the crazies its produced btw. Would take it here for the federal level in a heartbeat. We've only really had people like Dedecker to compete.

[Zinneke]

I honestly don't understand why the Dutch here are complaining, when they have a test lab downstairs from them that has reduced the common national interest (which is what is being voted for here, the formation of a unitary parliament representing every strand of the Dutch people, including the ones I dislike, like the SGP) to constituencies. It has been an unmitigated disaster in Belgium.

The issue of governance is a non-starter for me. Yes, the NL has had a lot of government collapses, but the NL is not a France, UK or Germany where you need a 1-2 party majority in order to govern such a large economy and military capability. Furthermore, parties that collapse governments in the lowlands always tend to suffer : LPF collapsing Balkende 2003, PvdA 2009, PVV 2012 then Open Vld here in Belgium. De Croo Jr basically ended his political career by collapsing Leterme I. In the NL, both VVD and PvdA knew this term that they had nothing to gain from a government collapse, with both projected to have a net seat loss. Eventually kids grow up.

The issue of distance between politics and citizens : name me one other country in Europe where a citizens movement like Leefbaar movement can turn itself (albeit through personalisation) into the 2nd political force of the country. Also, this is a phenomenon recorded in FPTP countries like the UK : ''Westminster Bubble'', ''Brexit is a bloody nose for the elite'' etc. Most of the MPs in the UK parliament still voted with the party whip rather than what their constituents wanted in one of the most divisive referendums in history. This is everywhere, the electoral system has nothing to do with it.

Simply having elected representatives from your constituency will just lead to regionalism, which leads me to my next point. As evidenced in Belgium and Spain, its not just regionalist parties that profit from electoral districts, its the mainstream behemoths too, who consolidate their bases and/or compete with the regionalists by surrounding their economic program with regional-based promises (''Bring back the coal mines to Wallonia'' - ''PSC-PSOE are the only ones who will keep the Francoists out of Catalan law''). THe D'hondt system combined with the electoral districts in Belgium has created micro-regionalist interests, and essentially created quasi-confederalism when negotiating our government formations in what is still supposed to be, constitutionally at least, a federal country.

NL has the least worst system. 1 man, 1 vote, low threshold. for a parliament that represents the national interest. Makes elections like these with everything to play for worth reporting on too.

EDIT : German system a close second, but it still allows for stuff like the CSU.

[Zinneke]

PvdD : 71%
SP: 70%
PvdA : 67%
GL : 67%


btw, bit of a storm brewing with Wilders tweeting a photoshopped picture of Pechtold in an Islamic demonstration in London. He is trying to out-trump Trump by retweeting people who believe him, essentially trying to create an internet meme of Pechtold being an islamist.

http://www.standaard.be/cnt/dmf20170206_02715319

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

[Zinneke]

Imagine if Dutch Turks voted for an ex-AKP member...the outrage.

70% of Dutch Turkish voters actually voted for the AKP in the last Turkish election, with 46% turnout. Haven't noticed any real outrage outside the right-wing internet sphere. Your point being?

Not really my point. We discussed that issue and I don't think we need to revisit it, particularly as one person is personally concerned.

My point is slightly different that there was a lot of media scrutiny over ex and even current AKP members/supporters in the ranks of GL (that were, rightly imo, expelled, but for the superficial reasons) and then the furore over DENK. Wilders meanwhile has a lot of foreign backers from his trips abroad, namely neo-cons from the US or affiliates. And now I see he has ex-members of foreign parties who wish to seed discord in our own communities. No uproar like the AKP-GL councillor.

Its becoming really hard to distinguish whether this some kind of cross-national political movement or whether its a genuine conflict of interest when you are funded by foreign backers.

[Zinneke]

VVD are done in The South* of the mid terms are anything to go by. Only Venlo seems remotely pro-VVD beacon due to all the medium-scale business there. I'm not sure Rutte can win over Limburgers over a local VVD voice. It makes me wonder if they seem still somewhat tribal over there to you guys. Stevaert on the this side of the border is an example of that, getting lifelong CD&V/CVP voters on board at the turn of the century, and probably has bigger name recognition in Dutch Limburg than some Hollander parliamentarians. It'd be interesting to see what scores Limburgers get in Limburg compared to other provincial loyalties.

*which makes Flanders the Deep South and Wallonia Mexico. Makes sense I guess.

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

[Zinneke]

Interesting: data on voting (and non-voting) behavior for all sorts of demographics for the 2012 election.

7 % of non-Western immigrants voted for PVV? That's strange.

Does the variable include Eastern Europeans? The poorer ones tend to vote for right-wing conservatives, the others liberal.

Also, David, do you know how the Molukkans vote is spread out these days?

[Zinneke]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

Yes, sound arguments but I'm still not so sure any of the other left-wing parties would want to associate themselves with Rutte after PvdA's experience. For example, I think the way GL can ''get away'' with an alliance with VVD with their electorate is by making Rutte a sacrificial lamb, because he is now undoubtedly the leading figure of right-wing politics. Sometimes gunning down one of the enemy's big hitters is enough for our electorate, unfortunately.

Also, addressing the PM question, if we are headed for a 5 party coalition I think the CDA would be ideally placed, no? Bruma is a bit of a wet flannel who lacks Rutte's leadership skills, but as I said above I can't imagine a situation where GL or even PvdA let VVD cling on to the premiership. If PVV win a plurality then the ''rule'' that the most votes gets to be PM goes out of the window.  

I agree with mvd10 here and expect Rutte to hold on to power unless another party becomes the largest non-PVV party, in which case we're really the laughing stock of Europe -- hello PM Klaver! According to the latest Kantar poll, 49% still think Rutte is trustworthy (down from 58% in January). Not 49% of VVD voters, but 49% of all voters. Incredible, but true. I expect the VVD to pull it off once again and get over 30 seats, probably about what they got in 2010.

Is that not linked to the fact that Rutte has shown undoubtedly good leadership of both his party, his coalition and in some cases, admittedly, his country? What is mean is, trustworthiness for some people is a safe pair of hands rather than not being guilty of quasi-criminality?

[Zinneke]

I dont see any reason why Rutte has to be replaced if the VVD is going to be the biggest non-PVV party. Rutte strenght is that he is flexible and can built several coalitions if needed, which will be needed for the next formation. Rutte is still popular despite some scandals, the only one that has the same favorable ratings is Pechtold (D66). Removing Rutte will push the VVD more to the right with Zijlstra.

Offering Foreign Affairs to Rutte would be a solution. He wouldn't necessarily have to resign as party leader. I think Rogier's scenario will only be relevant if GL is needed and I don't think it's impossible. But yes, I agree it is far more likely that Rutte will stay on, even if GL is needed.

Why the hell would GL prefer Zijlstra or Schippers instead of Rutte?

Because of what DavidB said + the average left-wing voter probably doesn't know about VVD internal politics and just wants Rutte gone. But I agree that they also probably want the whole of the VVD gone which will be unfeasible.

I may also be basing myself too much on our coalition practices. Like how there were almost always 3 PM candidates from xy parties that are ''black balled'' by coalition partner z during negotiation process due to their unpopularity with z party's electorate. In the NL's case, I think they know what their electorates would accept, and I doubt its Rutte appearing on the radio every friday as PM again.

The PM position could be negotiated this time round because otherwise Wilders would be the candidate if he ''wins''. The fact that VVD can't go into this election saying they have won is a loss for Rutte in itself. The balkanisation of this election is hiding the fact that this is a pretty strong anti-incumbent vote.

[Zinneke]

David, doesn't the municipals show that Wilders has the capability of attracting national attention without entering what his voters consider to be the establishment tricks. The guy stood in 2 cities, got a joint plurality in one and still managed to dominate the headlines. I doubt he is worried about the debates meaning that he will stay out of the limelight.