Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Are you seriously doubling down on this? It was perfectly clear what you were referring to, no need to waste any words on making your implications, which are frankly kind of racist,

Where on earth did you get the implication that I was being racist towards ethnic minorities? I'm not saying all ethnic minorities do this, I'm saying some people from ethnic minorities bring their home politics into ours, and they have a right to do this, but as De Wever says it can create problems, like the ones we are seeing right now in Belgium and the Netherlands. Here's another example of that : http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/08/one-in-five-children-withdrawn-from-amsterdam-school-linked-to-turkish-gulen-movement/

The issue had not been brought up yet so I brought it up. Obviously with the tong-in-cheek reference to Israel-Palestine and your stance on it. I thought it was a fairly harmless comment though. I guess I was mistaken and I'm sorry.

[Zinneke]

So which parties voted for/against the bill?

For : PvdA, D66, SP, GroenLinks, 50Plus and 7 VVDers

Against : SGP, 20 odd VVD, CU, CDA, PvdD (Only Thieme voted though), PVV, and one PvdA.

I don't understand why this is a bad law, given the heavy bureaucratic nature of having to put yourself on the organ donor list, it should be up to those who passionately don't wish to donate to send those letters. Most people don't care or say yes when you ask them, but don't bother to send the letter.

 Spain employs a similar system and it has worked wonders

[Zinneke]

50+ on 9 seats? I can see them joining a VVD-CDA-D66 government, or at least holding their majority. A scary thought.

Also, VVD will have a net seat loss of close to 14. Rutte is far from out of the firing line, especially if the combined left leaves him no option.

[Zinneke]

I mean that the combined left + the PVV (who will de facto vote against any government if they are excluded) voting against a centrist government with Rutte as its head is a possibility. Rutte would have to step down if he fails to build a majority. If he has to incorporate GL or PvdA in the coalition his party will hate him.

Alternatively I think the PVV could suffer like the SP did in 2012 when people watch the debates and realise that voting for them is ultimately a wasted vote. They will get 20 seats. Quote this on election day to make me look like an idiot.

[Zinneke]

If the PVV underperform, could we see a post-Wilders populist-right start to appear? I mean it seems like he is really the sticking point in terms of gaining respectable support and coalition building. (Especially the parties huge underperformance at local levels)

It doesn't underperform at the local level. It simply decides not to stand at a local level, except The Hague and Almere, where it performs well. Most big cities have a PVV equivalent half-endorsed by Wilders.

We talked about the durability of such a party system (a party that has two members remember, both of them being Geert Wilders), and while I thought that the PVV would implode I now think Wilders' image is so anti-establishment and er, deplorable, it works far more effectively than the "intellectual" right-populism of VNL, especially with the tokkies, white supremacists, and anti-Scheveningen peripheral regions.

His program for the election is a total shambles compared to the last one though.

[Zinneke]

The Dutch Left can also be blessed than such a party is taking so many seats off the traditional right-wing parties. The Left is the ultimate boogey man for those voters though. South of the border, the N-VA - who recently seem hellbent on becoming the Flemish equivalent of VVD in all but name - went into the last election saying a vote for Vlaams Belang, our extreme right, was a vote for keeping the Walloon PS in government. Given the 8-9% swing from VB to N-VA, expect a similar strategy from Rutte.

[Zinneke]

Would you be willing to open a similar thread about politics in Belgium, JosepBroz? That could be extremely interesting. I know too little about current developments in Belgian politics.

Yes, for sure I will do some, but in terms of what is going on now in Belgium things are relatively quiet, largely because everybody seems to be in some form of power apart from the Greens, the fascists and the communists - all of which will likely benefit next election.
I was going to start by looking at the referendum on whether we should have retained the King post-war (very interesting divide between republicans and royalists), then look at the Vlaams Beweging's rise and fall and rise again under De Wever, in tandem with the Frenchisation of Brussels and explaining the PS supremacy in Wallonia. Im currently moving though so I will write it at the time im settled.

Good post above btw, some proper political theory. I read an economics/political science paper on the subject of tactical voting and game theory in the Netherlands in relation to the Left/Right divide and how it functioned in the 2012 election. I'll try and post it here as its applicable to most PR systems.

[Zinneke]

I didn't really know Baudet or his movement. He's likely self-promoting if he doesn't want to join VNL though. That picture says as much.

A lot of N-VAers go or have gone to the Ijzsewakke, its no big deal. It does help you distinguish between the ones who are clearly pro-independence and VB-lite cordon sanitaire avoiders, like Bourgeois, Francken and Jambon, and then the N-VAers who "don't have a hard on for Flemish Independence" like Siegried Bracke and the other public intellegentsia in the party who don't attend. But in all seriousness I wouldn't necessarily call the people who go to IJzerwake fascist, just historically illiterate and sharing the same platform as the clear neo-Nazi's and neo-fascists. But as much as I dislike the right-wing of the Vlaamse Beweging and admire the forgotten left of its Movement, I can't in good faith start calling them all fascists like the PS do.

[Zinneke]

Well, yes, as it split off from some other ceremony over historical details abouut the extent of Flemish collaboration, which is a tough political cookie. The Vlaamse Beweging spent years trying to rectify the image of your average flamingant due to what happened in WW2, but they did this through different methods : some acknowledged that the Flemish Movement as  a whole was at fault, while others said they had no choice, it wasn't that bad, or it was a long time ago etc. These latter ones are usually the ones who tred the thin line of the IJzerwake, as they also honour some dead Flemish soldiers from the Eastern Front (fighting for the ''Moffen''). And then you have the 1488 Hitler-cultists from organisations like Voorpost - which I imagine you know all to well.

If you want to distinguish between the Flamingants, you can also look at what Flemish Lion they wave. Like the Senyera in Catalonia, each one has a particular significance.

[Zinneke]

I imagine if it is going to be a two horse race it will be between Rutte and Wilders, in which case there is only one possible winner.

[Zinneke]

Almost as farcical as Belgian federalism. Almost. But hey, Rutte gets to say he stood up to Brussels.

Anyway, new polls out, English language source. http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2016/11/vvd-increases-lead-in-latest-poll-of-polls-50plus-marches-on/

It looks like VVD have definitively overtaken PVV.

11 seats for 50+. Like equal with PvdA. Wtf.

[Zinneke]

Remember how the initial dream of D66 was to bring in an American style executive President and FPTP?

Remember when Alexander Pechtold won the leadership election after D66 got trounced in 2002? That's when that movement died.

[Zinneke]

Do you think Monasch will do like Mélenchon in France or Wesphaël here (before he got arrested for the murder his wife) and set up a personality based party that tries to squeeze itself in between the traditional centre-left party, the greens and the traditional communist party?

I hope so, as this election is virtually lost for progressives. What we need is a rigorous example of how factionalism and lack of leadership (post-Samsom|Hollande 2012) is just a major issue across Europe. Makes me happy that we at least have someone with balls and vision like Magnette in Belgium, even if he chose the wrong party. Monasch will either bring this factionalism to the forefront or turn out to be a strong leader of the Dutch left.

[Zinneke]

wrong thread

EDIT : Hijacking my sh**tpost to laugh at Wilders wanting to ban Sylvana Simons - this is the man, as Jesse Klaver has pointed out, that says he is being silenced in the media.

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

[Zinneke]

I think CDA will gradually go down as the election comes nearer. In this case its probably due to 50PLUS

Could there be tactical voting to VVD from CDA, D66 and 50 plus to prevent a PVV victory?

There is historical precedent of it becoming a two horse race to block the other's rise like 2012. But I think a lot of people felt let down by the subsequent government formation. I think that like 2012 narratives will matter though, and CDA just seem to have no narrative to this election yet, just a capability of getting out their voters and engaging in clientelism in the rural South.

[Zinneke]

All this may lead to more than 100,000 votes essentially being thrown away if all three parties end up under the 0,67% threshold, though it remains to be seen whether FvD and GP will actually get on the ballot.

Why wouldn't they get on the ballot? It is not that difficult, if you have some kind of a party organization.

Its still a costly exercise and I think its fair to say that the Dutch Right is hard electoral market to enter right now.

New peil.nl poll has PVV +1 to 34, PvdD +1 to 5, VVD -1 to 24 and D66 -1 to 14. The SP is now at 11 seats, -4 compared to TK12 and the only opposition party losing seats, truly a piss poor performance given the PvdA's unpopularity.

What is GL's score in light of PVDA's unpopularity?

[Zinneke]

How secure is Roemer's leadership of the SP at the moment, given their poor polling at the moment?

Secured before the election, but he is probably finished after the election

Any likely successors? SP is definitely a party that (on paper) should benefit from the current malaise, so their failure is pretty interesting.

Perhaps in industrial centers with strong Marxist cultures of opposition and trade unionism, and the whole progressive ideology that comes with it. SP's equivalent in Belgium is at a whopping 18% in the South, where most of the population live in the industrial belt of Wallonia (Sambre-Meuse valley).

SP's main core vote comes from places like the North that are extremely depressed and traditionally vote for the left and then places that resemble the Walloon industrial belt a lot, like Oss, Boxmeer, and South Limburg - where it is pretty much in a split plurality with the PVV. Unfortunately their ground game appears to be heavily limited to targeting old industry and old voters and not going any further, and these regions tend to decrease in population thanks to a flexible labour market for young people.

PVV also simply monopolise issues like immigration in the media which attract part of the industrial vote SP is obsessed with, along with urban (GroenLinks), suburban (PVV-GroenLinks) and rural (CDA-CU-50+) voters.

Roemer is definitely a liability and there is a lot of tactical voting that is starting to form up. They were in the bracket of parties all on 20 seats before. SP suffer heavily from the structural reasons above and from having a de facto cordon sanitaire around them - yet PVV didn't. In Belgium its the opposite, although the N-VA are thinking of ending the cordon sanitaire with the extreme right.

[Zinneke]

Geert Wilders found guilty of inciting discrimination against Dutch Morrocans. Judge said that no sentence or fine would be given as it is sufficient punishment to be found guilty given Wilders is a politician. Judge clearly knows nothing about politics then.

Also, DavidB, you are right, SP can't be under a cordon sanitaire given that at local levels they are integrated, unlike VB. But I think the cordon sanitaire tactic on a national level worked wonders against them in 2012 and it will be the same this time round. Under Marijnissen too I remember they did well in the mid-2000s and the mainstream political parties just ignored them, while pandering to the LPF before and Geertje afterwards. I know Fortuyn and Wilders are not VB but they aren't exactly choir children either compared to SP's relatively soft democratic socialism.

[Zinneke]

Its a superficial change they had to make.

[Zinneke]

Honestly David, I have the feeling Wilders will become PM.

Still a long way to go. Last election SP was in a similar position around this time.

[Zinneke]

What is exactly the CDA?

I'm tempted to say a standard Christian Democratic party in western Europe, but I think DavidB will tell you that they are an alliance of different confessional parties with a rich history in Dutch politics. I think right now though they are just popular in the South, especially rural Limburg, which like Flanders has this small town catholic culture that allows for clientalism. Their Flemish equivalent still has the largest trade union and mutualité (they have a pillar, a state within a state - https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pilarisation) but politically are becoming less and less relevant as a lot of people no longer vote for parties out of loyalty. I imagine the same has happened to the CDA.

[Zinneke]

Rutte says "chances of cooperating with the PVV are zero."

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2017/01/15/rutte-kans-op-samenwerking-met-pvv-is-nul-a1541314

He would say that, wouldn't he

Again, look how well it worked with SP. Polling as high as 36 to gaining no seats.

But this is still a more surprising move IMO. The right wing of the VVD are definitely nit going to like a 5 party coalition to Rutte's left instead of a simple 3 party PVV-VVD-50+.

I would like this coalition to happen. It would kill 3 birds with one stone.

[Zinneke]

The reason the SP failed in 2012 was because Roemer underperformed in the debates.

Parliamentary VVD leader Zijlstra, who is on the right of the VVD, already says that the next coalition would not be ideal. He already distanced the VVD from the PVV in the past weeks saying that cooperation between these parties is not going to happen. And he tries to frame the PVV as economically left to the SP and socially unacceptable.

The tactic of the VVD for this election seems to attract VVD-PVV supporters by saying that a vote for PVV will be wasted anyway (similar in 2012) and by distancing itself from the PVV, it can attracts D66&CDA-VVD supporters who wants a centre right coalition but are afraid that the VVD will cooperate with the PVV.

The reason the SP failed is also because PvdA employed that exact same tactic of portraying SP as a ''wasted'' vote. All the other major party candidates said a coalition with SP was impossible, including the centre left.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

D66 have betrayed their base before. Such is the nature of moderate heroes. Hence why I think after this election the PvdA will re-merge and we will be able to commence the cycle again. VVD are never going to accept responsibility for coalitions it seems, despite their obsession with the concept. Leftists will constantly be duped by demaguogues who give up principles for power. Such is politics.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If Jessie Klaver makes the debate and doesn't come out as a Stalinist, then I'm confident he can at least attract some PvdA and SP. He might even bring in some D66 university types who like his stance on Europe and realise that Pechtold is a vote for the status quo.

Then again, I could be one of the leftists above.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I was under the impression a lot of 50+'s swing came when Wilders announced back in 2012* that he would abandon on some pension protection promise he made in his manifesto, on TV, literally minutes after the polls closed.

*or maybe the provincials.

[Zinneke]

Is 50plus (the Partys leadership, not the electorate) closer to the Right (anti-EU, EU-sceptical, against Islam, against mass immigration) or the Left (pro-EU, against own country and People, pro mass immigration, loving Islam)?

In other words, despite rhetoric in the election campaign, is it possible to form a government with PVV, VVD, 50plus, CU e.g.?

I have not met a 50+ voter, but I imagine that a lot of them are a mix of former PVV, but also PvdA and SP, all of whom have simply given up on political structures and merely want a force that protects the direct interests of the baby boomers. Economically they are definitely what you would call old school left. But I think they remain the only party to have not ruled out governing with the PVV.

I'm not sure these parties you mention would be able to agree on a budget, which is one of the key points in coalition making. Rutte has said his first reason for ruling out the PVV as a partner is that they have an economic program similar to the SP. This is tactic similar to the UMP in France against FN, that doesn't really work at least allows them to secure their right-wing base.

In the case of the NL though we still have to remember that the VVD is fundamentally a neo-liberal party, and that they will form coalitions with parties that allow them to continue the NL's status as the good student of European fiscal policy. A coalition with PVV and 50+ probably requires abandoning that status.

And then there is the First Chamber majority.

By the way, tp put the PVV's lead into perspective, here is a graphical representation of how the parliament would look.