Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[Zinneke]

Ipsos exit poll, share of vote:

20.6% VVD
12.7% CDA
12.6% D66
12.6% PVV
10.7% GL
  9.3% SP
  6.0% PvdA
  4.0% CU
  3.3% PvdD
  2.7% 50+
  2.0% SGP
  2.0% Denk
  1.3% FvD

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842109639894413312

Seems like forming a coalition will take a really, really, really long time.

The Dutch will never beat our record. THey can't even beat our turnout record.

Honestly as it stands it seems straighforward. CU-D66-CDA in, PvdA out, Rutte stays PM. Work with the small parties in a minority. DavidB predicted this several pages ago when Wilders was on 30+ seats.

[Zinneke]

Ipsos exit poll, share of vote:

20.6% VVD
12.7% CDA
12.6% D66
12.6% PVV
10.7% GL
  9.3% SP
  6.0% PvdA
  4.0% CU
  3.3% PvdD
  2.7% 50+
  2.0% SGP
  2.0% Denk
  1.3% FvD

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/842109639894413312

Seems like forming a coalition will take a really, really, really long time.

The Dutch will never beat our record. THey can't even beat our turnout record.

Honestly as it stands it seems straighforward. CU-D66-CDA in, PvdA out, Rutte stays PM. Work with the small parties in a minority. DavidB predicted this several pages ago when Wilders was on 30+ seats.

The problem will be D66 and SGP, especially if the euthanasia issue flares up.

I don't think it will be SGP, but the point still stands because CU have to be in there for a centre-right government.
I think they will try to negotiate with 50+ before SGP because they can buy off their electorate and get rid of it fairly easily. CDA and VVD +4 next election. Not sure if they have a majority in the FIrst Chamber.

[Zinneke]

  I just read about the Fvd.  Did they attract some former PVV voters? Also, would they be considered viable coalition partners if they had won more seats?  I like how national direct democracy is a key plank of theirs, though I believe D66 is for that too and it doesn't seem as if they've achieved much in spite of being in government over the years.

*warning* potentially biased answer

Its their right-wing crypto-conspiracy theories that make them somewhat popular with people who are perhaps tired of Wilders' antics.  I wouldn't take the FvD's talk of direct democracy very seriously. Its like Orban or Kacsinski's movements. Their ''referenda'' are worthy of the Soviet regimes that preceded them.

I always thought he was a right-wing politician given his hawkish budgetary stances...no wonder PvdA is getting slaughtered.

wouldn't associate that so directly....some countries are much more fiscal conservatives than others and still got a left-right divide on many issues.

This. NL is a net contributor to the EU budget, and its protestant culture makes debt something very badly seen upon. schuld means both debt and guilt in Dutch.

Asscher is about to resign I think. I know have to admit Samsom would have at least done better because Asscher really ed himself in the debates.

[Zinneke]

  I just read about the Fvd.  Did they attract some former PVV voters? Also, would they be considered viable coalition partners if they had won more seats?  I like how national direct democracy is a key plank of theirs, though I believe D66 is for that too and it doesn't seem as if they've achieved much in spite of being in government over the years.

The Times readers are particularly eager to know what the kingmaker will do now...

lol, he is nowhere to be kingmaker

But he's Murdoch's boy now.

[Zinneke]

GL seems to be underperforming exit polls

Wait for the big cities...

[Zinneke]

GL largest in Amsterdam with 19%

Denk 7%, Artikel 1 almost 3%

Bittersweet I guess.

[Zinneke]

Seems disappointing for GL relative to exit polls. How do they get to 12% nationally with just 19% in Amsterdam?

Because Amsterdam and the Randstad account for a massive chunk of the population? Its the first major urban zone declared.

The key is whether GL can maintain this in Utrecht, and get semi-decent results in The Hague and Rotterdam. I think judging by Amsterdam they will lose Utrecht to D66 though.

[Zinneke]

Kerkrade, win for the PVV - keeping up the NSB tradition.

Denk + Artikel 1 more than 10% in Amsterdam. Its really disgusting

Denk I understand, but Artikel 1 is just what the americans would call an ultimate SJW right? hardly as disgusting as islamo-fascists and crypto-conspiracy theorists talking about Great Replacement.

I should not be posting here because I'm past my bedtime.

Same ISIS that bombed Erdogan country?

Or are you just here to draw attention like the other children?

[Zinneke]

Rumors are that Denk is larger than PvdA in Rotterdam

Although that could said more about the state PvdA than Denk

PvdA joins the long list of socialist/social democratic parties in Europe that have become zombies. PASOK, PSOE, Irish Labour, French PS, UK Labour, MSZP, etc, etc.

Some of these parties are more dead than others. The Dutch and the Greek ones have dropped below 10%. Others are still polling above 10% or 20%. The magnitude of the catastrophe says that PvdA is the new PASOK. Is this poetic justice?

Netherlands is more due to a competetive electoral market. very easy to go from Samsom to Klaver. Very similar profiles, language, etc. Then the other disapointed go to D66 to check them out.

Greece I think had a lot to do with the entire country being on the brink of economic collapse.

[Zinneke]

Roermond another dead heat between VVD and PVV.
Capital of Limburg nationalism.

[Zinneke]

Why is the CDA doing so well in the north? Isn't that leftist country?

North is PvdA and CDA country. Populist and liberal parties arent doing well there

East Groningen begs to differ.

[Zinneke]

Considering last time out Wilders prematurely collapsed a government he really isn't doing that well. He should be weighed up against 2010.

[Zinneke]

As expected D66 wins Wageningen

And Utrecht. Go higher education.

[Zinneke]

PVV wins Maastricht

Wow that city trended PvdA for so many years.

[Zinneke]

Actually, has anyone speculated on the parallels btw/PvdA's result and that of the Clegg Lib Dems in 2015?

Yup, Nick Clegg himself, in an NOS interview a few months ago.

[Zinneke]

I think this is a result many dutch can live with:
- Overall the right has a solid majority
- The left has its new heroes
- Nobody cares about the destruction of the PvdA
- PVV still second largest party and will be largest opposition party. Wilders lives to fight another day.
- A solid coalition: VVD+CDA+D66+CU is within reach and could be formed quite fast.
- the status-quo remains intact

Personally I had hoped for a better result for Wilders, but he made some serious mistakes in the campaign and the shy-voter-effect wasn't there for him. But he still wins quite some seats, it is the second best result for him ever.

I think two parties (apart from PvdA ofcourse) underperformed:
- CDA had hoped to reach the mid-twenties. Remember: Balkenende stepped down with a result of 21 seats and Buma is celebrating for 19. Much can change in ten years.
- SP should have performed way better. I think this will mean the end of Roemer.

Interesting thoughts, particularly the one about Balkende. I'm surprised though that you think the Duth Left will not come out of this feeling disappointed. PvdA have lost 28 seats, GL gained 10, D66 7. SP lost one. Does´t look good.

[Zinneke]

What exactly is the voter base of the Animal Rights' party and how is it different to GL?

I seem to recall some analysis that suggests their votes are less prosperous and more cynical of politics.

Yup, DavidB schooled me on this because I found it really hard to believe but PvdD have their best results in the Deep South as a sort of protest (its SP-PVV territory in the urban areas there), as well as their usual demograpic of student cities.

imho wilders can't hope for a better global environment the next time. ...the populist moment is at its peak, it could hardly get any better, gifts like a refugee crisis happen only so often and that the turkey thing was helping rutte an not wilders is telling enough.

The debate just after the issue must have helped. Rutte i think said the line that will be remembered for this election (like Balkendaele's "You look so pretty" but the opposite effect). "There is a difference between tweeting from the sofa and governing the country". From then on he made Wilders look amateurish, he planted that idea and it worked wonders IMO.

[Zinneke]

BTW:

Since January 1, Austria has its own "Denk" party:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Movement_for_the_Future

It reminds me a bit of the politically bankrupt BZÖ party (Alliance for the Future of Austria).

All of their founding members are Austro-Turks, but it says it wants to be a party for all migrants here.

We have much, much worse here in Brussels.



I don't understand DENK being considered as dangerous. For sure, they are basically a sign of failed integration, and its an issue that needs to be addressed. But I don´t think they are quite aware of the political implications of their vote. 

[Zinneke]

Today, the newly elected leaders also discussed proposals on where the various parties will be seated in the new parliament. Left-wing parties sit on the left, centrist parties in the middle and right-wing parties on the right. It was proposed that Thierry Baudet's FvD take the seats that used to belong to VNL, in the far right corner of parliament behind the PVV, but Baudet objects to this and does not want to share a part of the parliament with VVD, CDA and SGP either: he states FvD are a "progressive party of the center" What a troll. Meanwhile, FvD #2 Theo Hiddema said he needs some more time to finish his affairs as a top lawyer, which would mean he will not immediately be available on a fulltime basis.

I agree with his statement. He sounds like the perfect successor to the CentrumPartij.

[Zinneke]

What does "energy transition" for the VVD mean?

I'm guessing it has to do with reducing coal power and instead increase environmentally friendly power, like wind and solar.  

Encourage innovation vs technical-specific proposals (read : regulation) is the trade-off.

[Zinneke]

One thing I'm wondering about: which municipality would have seen the lowest "winning" share (and on behalf of which party)?

From my basic search it seems like its Leewaarden with 15% for the VVD. Rotterdam and Maastricht also delivered pretty small pluralities, close to 16%. A testament to the diversity of types of cultural class you can find in these cities.

On the subject I'm wondering if they release excel sheets of the vote share per gemeente like in Belgium.

[Zinneke]

How is it possible that some parties have more votes according to ND than in the final results as calculated by you?

Votes from abroad?

[Zinneke]

He would have been out anyway. After the formation is completed we will have a new finance minister and Dijsselbloem can't chair the Eurogroup if he isn't our finance minister. But I wouldn't be surprised if most people here actually agreed with him.

That was the parliamentary rhetoric towed by the CDA amongst others. Dijsselbloem was not alone.

This just hastens his departure, but brings him back in favourability as the "unlucky loser" of this election.

[Zinneke]

Question for the Dutch posters:

I've noticed that the Netherlands has a history of small parties that win seats for an election or two and then fade away. Party for the Animals seems to be a keeper, but what about the others?

Do 50+, DENK, and FvD stand a chance at sticking around long term?

I am not Dutch unfortunately, but your question is interesting so I would attempt it nonetheless to start things off. Apart from what is on the political agenda, I would say that party durability is indirectly linked to the party structure - i.e whether its personalist or not - and also whether it is vulnerable to factionalisation. Parties on the far right in the NL seem to suffer from both phenomena hence why I have to count the number of Dutch far right parties on my fingers. Contrastly, south of the border the VB (regardless as to what the B stands for) has never really faced an existential crisis because it has pretty solid party structures that remarkably allows for factions within and the leader has a queue of people who could take his place should he be assasinated a week before an election. I said pages ago that PVV may not last the end of the decade despite their gains and similarly if the FvD were to take his place its hard to see them lasting without Baudet.

I'm not familiar with how the 50+ party works. It seems like it revolves around Henk Kroll in the media but had some career politicians on its list who seem to know what they are doing. Its hard to tell which one of the two makes their success. But their policy proposals are the kind that could eventually be bought off by the CDA or a revived PvdA.

For DENK you definitely need an ethnographer on the ground to figure out why that demographic turned out for this election, and whether they will actually vote again come what may.

[Zinneke]

CD&V have swung more to the centre too. When they were in cartel with the N-VA they were very right-wing in order to try and target white collar Flemish lower middle classes disapointed with the Purple-Green Verhofstadt-Stevaert axis and the subsequent state reforms which didn't go far enough (especially regarding Brussels periphery, but thats for the Belgian thread that will surface). I would say CD&V's left-wing faction is much larger than CDA's due to them having close links to the largest trade union in Belgium.

Cdh is way more left-wing than CDA.

Re: Lux I only know that when Junker was selected as EPP candidate it was because he provided balance for the more left-wing Christian Democrats (like Cdh) to accept what is usually someone that the Franco-German conservatives decide on.