Sabato Rating Updates 7/31/14: Whats the matter with KS?

[Never]

I think Georgia's gubernatorial race should have been put in the tossup category as well, considering Sabato rightly felt that Kansas is one. PA should also be Likely D, since Corbett shows no sign of turning that race around; it's clearly in Wolf's favor.

IL, WI, and AR were good calls reflective of the dynamics of each race.

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Overall, I don't disagree with Sabato's updates this time around, but he should have changed GA/PA.

[Never]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Maybe, but I wouldn't be so quick to move it back to that. I wish Sabato would use Tossup/Tilt D, because that could be where Hawaii would stand as of today without knowing the primary results, but unfortunately, most people don't use that term (I've only seen it from Rothenberg). Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

[Never]

Hawaii should probably stay a tossup if Abercrombie is nominated on the Democratic side, but should be moved to Lean or Likely D if Ige wins.

Even if Abercrombie wins; it should be Lean D.

Simply put, if I had to pick between Tossup and Lean D, I'd have to stick with Tossup. Abercrombie could very well win, but he will have to fight for it. Aiona definitely has an opening.

I'm not sure where Aiona stands fundraising wise; but I do know that Abercrombie has a sizable war chest compared to Ige.

I found this July 11 report from Hawaii News Now, and apparently Aiona raised $370K, while Abercrombie raised $4.3 million and Ige raised $321K. While Abercrombie has a significant advantage regarding money, Ige keeping the primary competitive shows me that fundraising is not everything in the Aloha State.

[Never]

I think Georgia's gubernatorial race should have been put in the tossup category as well, considering Sabato rightly felt that Kansas is one.

Davis doesn't have to win a runoff.

True, but Deal is in a weak position, and I could see Jason Carter managing to reach 50% of the vote in November. 

[Never]

Wolf leads by 13-25 points = "lean D"
Martinez leads by 0-7 points = "likely R"

Larry Sabato Logic.

Maybe he has an incumbent bias? Having read some of books and other things, I don't see him as having deeply partisan views one way or the other, which would help in explaining that kind of discrepancy between Wolf's and Martinez's ratings...

[Never]

Wolf leads by 13-25 points = "lean D"
Martinez leads by 0-7 points = "likely R"

Larry Sabato Logic.

Maybe he has an incumbent bias? Having read some of books and other things, I don't see him as having deeply partisan view one way or the other, which would help in explaining that kind of discrepancy between Wolf's and Martinez's ratings...

I had it chalked up to the typical "muh incumbency" mindset before, but the fact that he moved Illinois to Lean R so easily (only WAA shows it as a blowout) kind of nullifies that hypothesis.

Hell, Wolf has a bigger lead than Abbott and Kitzhaber, and both of those races are rated as "safe".

Quinn might be in a somewhat weaker position than Corbett based on their respective track records as governors, but I see what you mean. I hadn't thought about Wolf's sizeable lead. He is definitely going to win; I have him as Likely D right now on my personal ranking, but he is way closer to Safe D than Tossup.

I think that Miles is right about the high possibility that Sabato will soon recognize the race is shifting in Wolf's favor and update his rating in PA accordingly.

[Never]

Wolf leads by 13-25 points = "lean D"
Martinez leads by 0-7 points = "likely R"

Larry Sabato Logic.

Maybe he has an incumbent bias? Having read some of books and other things, I don't see him as having deeply partisan view one way or the other, which would help in explaining that kind of discrepancy between Wolf's and Martinez's ratings...

I had it chalked up to the typical "muh incumbency" mindset before, but the fact that he moved Illinois to Lean R so easily (only WAA shows it as a blowout) kind of nullifies that hypothesis.

Hell, Wolf has a bigger lead than Abbott and Kitzhaber, and both of those races are rated as "safe".

Quinn might be in a somewhat weaker position than Corbett based on their respective track records as governors, but I see what you mean. I hadn't thought about Wolf's sizeable lead. He is definitely going to win; I have him as Likely D right now on my personal ranking, but he is way closer to Safe D than Tossup.

I think that Miles is right about the high possibility that Sabato will soon recognize the race is shifting in Wolf's favor and update his rating in PA accordingly.

In no scenario is that anywhere close to true

I was looking more at their records as governor, not just the polls. Illinois has bigger problems than Pennsylvania, which partly explains why the former state (which is much more Democratic than the latter) is highly competitive regarding this year's gubernatorial races. I didn't mean that Quinn is going to lose by what Corbett will (Quinn could even win), but a Democratic governor in a state like Illinois just shouldn't be in the position that Quinn is.

I'll admit the comment that you called out wasn't very good, but hopefully my explanation gives a better idea of what I'm trying to say.