When will the people learn polls at this time are worthless, as proved over time and time again.
When is the magic arbitrary point they start becoming useful? Hillary has consistently led every Republican candidate in polls for a year and a half now. It's pretty foolish to dismiss that just because "it's early, and things COULD (emphasis) change".
I don't think there is any arbitrary cutoff when we can say "Alright, this batch of polls will tell us what to expect on election night." It's just that looking at Clinton leading all of her potential opponents as of 2014 could be viewed as similar to how McCain led both
Obama and
Clinton in 2006 and 2007. On the Obama vs. McCain matchup that I hyperlinked, it appears that McCain led Obama by 12 to 19 points in the polls all the way at the bottom of the screen. An LA Times poll from December '06 showed McCain leading Clinton by 14 points. Based on that data and how it compared to 2008's actual result, it seems like Clinton's leads of 9 and 10 points against major GOP candidates in the RealClearPolitics average might not be good indicators for how she will do on November 8, 2016 should she become the Democratic nominee.
I still think that Hillary will win if she runs, but I'm not really basing that on how she is doing in polls right now. I'm just looking at the national environment, Hillary's strengths as a potential candidate, and other things.
