What is the GOP's ceiling in regards to the Hispanic vote in 2016?

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

I don't read GOP troll posts.

Then do not respond to them, please and thank you.

[Never]

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

It's very debatable that any Republican in a national race has done as well as 40% (maybe Eisenhower or someone from before records really exist). The official exits for '04 gave Bush 44% but that has been debunked in lot of places; as this article points out, most experts believe it was closer to 35% to 37%.

Michael Dukakis - arguably the quintessential mediocre Democrat - got 70% of the Hispanic vote; Mondale got 66% (this is according to the Roper Center site). The Democrat who apparently did worst with Hispanics was Carter in '80, a very unpopular president in a three-way race who underperformed badly with a number of blocs (he barely won Jews and union members). And even then Reagan only got 37%.

So you basically need a 1980 situation (double-digit inflation, recession, Kennedy primary challenge, independent candidate, hostage crisis) or a 2004 rally-around-the-flag climate (which rarely benefits a challenger) to get the Republican marginally past 35%.

Hm, I see what you are saying, and thank you very much for the LA Times piece. That article seemed to imply that Republican candidates who are stronger than their opponents will lift their numbers with Hispanics along with the rest of the population, as noted when seeing the victories of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.

[Never]

For 2016, I'd say the absolute Republican ceiling for the Hispanic vote is probably right around 40%, which would necessitate the combination of a weak Democratic nominee, poor economy, and Republican ticket that makes a very determined outreach to this demographic. A Latino running mate might help, but I don't see Hispanics as being a group that votes strictly on ethnicity. The running mate would have to be personable, moderate, and/or support some form of immigration reform. Susana Martinez and Marco Rubio quickly come to mind, as eric82oslo mentioned. The chances of Republicans reaching this ceiling that I have set would be low, but conceivable, especially if the party is having a really good night.

It's more likely that the percentage of the Hispanic vote that goes Republican if the party wins the White House in 2016 will be somewhere in the thirties. If the GOP loses in 2016, I'm thinking that the numbers with Hispanics would be somewhere in the upper twenties to lower thirties (since the Democrat's numbers with whites could very well improve, especially if that Democrat is Hillary Clinton).

It's hard to estimate how low the floor would be for a fully Tea Party ticket or one that is hostile to the interests of Hispanics.

I stopped reading after 40%.  How absurd.  Not even close to what they've gotten over the past 8 years.

How can you refute my claims if you are unwilling to finish reading one sentence of my post? In that light, your response is the real absurdity here.

If you had actually read further on, you would have noticed that I said the Republicans reaching the ceiling that I set with Hispanic voters was contingent on various factors, and that it would be highly unlikely (though not impossible) that a Republican can reach this ceiling in 2016.

If the GOP nominated an individual friendly to Hispanic voters who runs against a mediocre Democrat, the party could very well reach 40% of the Hispanic vote.

What would you consider a "mediocre Democrat," though?  Dennis Kucinich?

Martin O'Malley was the first individual who came to mind. Andrew Cuomo is also someone who I would consider to be a mediocre Democratic candidate, even though I personally think that he has done a acceptable job as Governor of New York. Joe Biden could run the risk of being a poor option; he appears to be a low-floor/normal-ceiling candidate.

It seems that if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee, the Republican candidate will not be able to win 40% of the Hispanic vote, but if she doesn't run, there is a significant possibility that the Democrats could end up with a candidate who would allow Republicans to reach the ceiling I set for them with this demographic.