Virginia in Presidential Elections

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I think that Virginia is an even tossup. Considering that there are relatively few swing states right now, it seems that Virginia is going to be a must-win state for both parties for a while.

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The question is, is northern VA strong enough on its own to carry the state for the Democrats? It's getting there, but not quite yet in my opinion.

I don't think that has happened just yet. Looking at Barack Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012, it seems like the Democrats still needed Richmond and the Hampton Roads areas in addition to NoVa. Don't get me wrong, Northern Virginia is a great help for the Democrats and gets them very close to victory, but if Democrats only drew votes from this region and weren't strong in other parts of the state, they would probably consistently lose presidential elections for a while.

[Never]

I  don't think anyone's arguing that Northern VA alone can carry the state...  No one region can carry any state (with maybe 1 or 2 exceptions)...  But it's getting to the point where democrats merely need to break even or close to even in the swing regions to win the state because NOVA is growing so strong.  It's becoming the equivalent of NYC to NY State.

This seems spot on.

The only thing is that NoVA isn't as populous compared to the rest of Virginia as New York City is to the state of New York, which just slightly complicates things for Democrats.

Looking at recent presidential elections in Virginia, it seems like the outer NoVA suburbs and  competitive counties in the southern and central parts of the Old Dominion are where elections will be won in the future.