How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?

[Never]

It could happen, but it is highly unlikely. I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election. It is much too early to tell whether OH and FL will both go for Hillary by a huge margin. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised for her to lose either or both, even if she still wins the overall election. I think she can get to 53%, but that she will top out there. She might expand the map compared to 2012 by two or three states, but it is probably going to be hard for her to beat the Republican by at least 10 points.

[Never]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary is going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

[Never]

I'm banking on Hillary either doing slightly better than Obama or moderately worse, causing her to lose the election.

Well, Hillary is gonna do either better or worse than Obama, so...

Let me rephrase that... I mean that I don't think that Hillary isn't going to do significantly better than Obama, and that she could very well lose. It seems like a lot of people think that she is headed for a landslide, and I don't think that's the case.

With Obama hitting what is basically the Democratic floor with whites (barring a complete collapse) and still getting 51%, and with Hillary's popularity in the Latino community I find it hard to imagine her doing moderately worse.

She could do better with Latinos, but that might be counteracted by having to deal with decreased turnout from blacks, nothing catastrophic, but I would expect her to get about 90-92% of the vote, somewhere between Kerry's share in 2004 and Obama's particularly high share.

[Never]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

I think it is notoriously difficult to determine who a candidate will pick as their running mate. I'm sure that most people expected McCain to pick someone other than Palin, it seemed like Obama was leaning towards Evan Bayh instead of Joe Biden, and many thought that Romney would opt for Rubio as his vice-presidential nominee.

Although we can reasonably expect Hillary Clinton to pick one of her supporters as her running mate, there are so many politicians allied with her that it is tough to see who she actually favors. There are going to be many other factors going into that decision other than ethnicity, and even if Clinton picks a minority running mate, that might only give her a boost of about 1% or so, and that is conditional on whether the running mate is a good pick in their own right. There is always the risk that Hillary could end up with someone on the ticket who provides no boost or even drags down the ticket.

[Never]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularly high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

No, it's not.

I think it is notoriously difficult to determine who a candidate will pick as their running mate. I'm sure that most people expected McCain to pick someone other than Palin, it seemed like Obama was leaning towards Evan Bayh instead of Joe Biden, and many thought that Romney would opt for Rubio as his vice-presidential nominee.

Although we can reasonably expect Hillary Clinton to pick one of her supporters as her running mate, there are so many politicians allied with her that it is tough to see who she actually favors. There are going to be many other factors going into that decision other than ethnicity, and even if Clinton picks a minority running mate, that might only give her a boost of about 1% or so, and that is conditional on whether the running mate is a good pick in their own right. There is always the risk that Hillary could end up with someone on the ticket who provides no boost or even drags down the ticket.

He was discussing how likely it was for Hillary to get above a 10% victory, that's what I was responding to.

Oh, I misunderstood you.

Still, I don't think that Hillary's running mate will really have much impact of whether Hillary can get a double digit win, and I feel that is something to consider.