What Will Happen to the Youth Vote After The Millenial Generation?

[Never]

Apparently, the millenials (born between 1980-2000) are heavily Democratic, having pushed Obama to victory twice.

However, what do you think will happen to the youth vote once the millenials start moving into their thirties, and the next generation born in this century takes their place in the 18-29 bloc? Do you see them becoming more conservative, more liberal, or about the same as the millenials? It might be too soon to tell, but considering that they will start voting in Presidential elections soon, I think that the next generation could have a big impact on the results, especially if their political views as a generational cohort are different from the millienial perspective.

Personally, I think it seems like the next generation after the millenials will be reactive and somewhat Republican, similar to Generation X.

[Never]

Yes, I am familiar with the Strauss-Howe generational theory. I have read the book Generations; it is in my personal library.

I'm looking at the book right now, and after researching to see if they had any updates on the theory, it seems that the authors thought the millennials were born from 1982 until 2005. That would mean that the newest generaion has not voted yet, and that they would not be able to vote until 2024, but I really think that the new "silent" generation could have started as early as 1997, meaning we could see their impact as soon as 2016.

On the other hand, you could be right that the last millennials were born in 1992. That would put me in the new generation of Silents, a kind of generation that I identified with. When I read the book, I did not identify with the millennials, who are viewed as "civics", because I felt that every other generation just gave them a free pass as if they were being doted on, and I did not like that their kind of generation was not religiously involved. I really felt aligned with the "adaptive" type of generation that is expected to succeed the millennials, as the adaptives were shown to be very religious and detail-oriented, in addition to valuing education.

I'd say that they could be moderate, but if I am not mistaken the Silent Generation of the 1920s-1930s was somewhat more Republican than its neighboring generations.

The new "silent" generation might not be receptive to the Tea Party or the far-left. The Silent Generation of the Roaring Twenties/Great Depression did spark the Civil Rights Movement, so that might indicate that they will get behind a movement if they think it would actually help people, but only if that is the case. This new generation wouldn't just change things for change's sake, while I think the millennials might be prone to doing so.

[Never]

Don't forget that in not too many years from now, a majority of first time voters (18-21 year olds) will in fact be majority-minority. (Newborn babies are already majority-minority, while children below 5 years are about 50/50 already.) Do you really think that such a cohort will vote majority Republican? I don't think so. At least not unless GOP gets close to 50/50 with both latinos and Asians, and even under such circumstances it would be rather far-fetched I'd say, as young people will always be much more liberal than older generations.

Hm, I have some ethnic ancestry, and I would readily consider becoming a Republican more so than identifying with the Democratic party. I know that as an individual I do not speak for the majority, but I don't think that minorities will always have to identify with the Democrats. People tend to forget that not too long ago, the late Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., arguably among the most famous black men of the twentieth century, did not publicly identify with any political party. Party identification, or lack thereof, tends to change over time. For one, it was shown that the percentage of young black men (ages 18-29) who voted for President Obama over his Republican opponents dropped by 14 points from 2008 to 2012, with Obama falling from 94% of the young black male vote to 80%. Who knows what that portends for the future? Also, I don't think young people will always be more liberal than their elders, rather, I would say that young people almost always look at things differently from the older generations. Different does not equal more liberal.