The VA GOP still hasn't learned.
This race is Safe D regardless of who the Republicans nominate and which party controls the White House, but I’m of course looking forward to Democrats downplaying expectations and hyping this up as a bellwether for the 2022 midterms.
Anyway, there’s already a VA-2021 thread for the governor's race: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=351883.0
Given Dems have lost gubernatorial races in states like MD and MA, and off-year elections are weird, I don't think that is true. Maybe Likely D, but with a pro-Republican national environment, Republicans could get lucky in VA. I agree though that VA isn't a bellwether, though if the Democrats win by a surprisingly narrow margin or a surprisingly large margin that could be indicative for the 2022 midterms.
There's the rub. A Larry Hogan or a Charlie Baker-type could definitely carry Virginia state-wide. But the GOP primary electorate in VA is not the GOP primary electorate in MD and its on a different planet than the GOP electorate in MA. They don't want a Larry Hogan and they definitely don't want a Charlie Baker. They want a Corey Stewart, and they may even want an Amanda Chase. Needless to say, these fringe figures are not acceptable to swing voters in the urban crescent, which is where the state is decided. Democrats will run a candidate from NOVA or Richmond (the current gov is from the Roads), and will win this race for the 5th time out of the last 6.
The problem for the VA GOP is half the state is Kentucky and half the state is New Jersey, and the New Jersey half has twice as many people.
The NJ half was run by people like Michael Steele, George Allen, Bob McDonnell, etc. That formula can win again.
