NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Suburbia]

It is all set: Ciattarelli-Allen for the Republicans and Murphy-Oliver for the Democrats.

Murphy wins by 5-15 points, and he gets his second term.

Who will win Morris and Somerset? Can Murphy flip Morris?

[Suburbia]

Where is Ciatarelli? He's been MIA for months now

The Allen pick is getting some traction but I’ve literally heard from her more times than from him, and it’s been two days.

I mean like... is he even campaigning or doing anything? It's like he's not even trying lol

No, I don't think so. He knows he is going to lose barring Murphy imploding, which he could do, since he is going on vacation to Italy soon; that could turn voters off because they will say that he is a hypocrite telling us working Jerseyans to stay home and lock down and his rich self can go on vacation to his Italian villa

Chris Christie has NOT endorsed Jack; Christie is still seen as the face of the NJGOP, he put the party in debt; he tainted the party, but he is more well-liked than Christie Todd "Whitless" as the base calls her, they consider her a RINO because she is too moderate.....

Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose, he probably runs for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024, while Bob Hugin may run in 2025, or run for Senate again in 2024

[Suburbia]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

It's his home county. If Murphy is not going to win his home county, Ciattarelli could......

[Suburbia]

Ciatarelli. Is. Not. Winning. Somerset!

He might due to the fact that the situation in Afghanistan is likely to cause Republican support to skyrocket in the 2021 and 2022 elections.

The country is not as interventionist as it used to be, even with Republicans. And in what way is the New Jersey Governor's race relevant to national foreign policy? Not only that but I doubt Afghanistan will be on anyone's minds anymore by November, barring some sort of 9/11 caliber terrorist attack occurring. That's the only way the Afghanistan withdrawal truly harms Biden and the Democratic Party in the long-term.

If that's the case, Mark Earley in Virginia and Bret Schundler in New Jersey should have won their governor's races post-9/11 when the GOP started to gain their 2001-02 edge, but they did not. Candidate quality matters.

Ciattarelli could win Somerset, he is more likely to win Morris. He really needs to win Bergen County, a major bellwether and Burlington County, the new bellwether in NJ politics.

[Suburbia]

He isn't winning Somerset, and definitely not winning Bergen. Burlington, probably not.

Somerset is his home county. Murphy will not win his home county, Monmouth, but Ciattarelli has to at least.

[Suburbia]

Bad poll for Republicans. The campaign is probably over on Labor Day, and only then because I don't believe in calling races earlier.

If Republicans want a shred of hope from this poll, it's:
(a) Ciattarelli favorables are not underwater
(b) 32% say taxes are their primary issue

Conclusion is that their base will probably turn out and mitigate losses down-ballot.

Can they replicate Whitman 1993-1997 and Christie-Guadagno 2009/2013 playbook?

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli really has to pour resources in Middlesex------South Amboy, Sayreville, Old Bridge, Woodbridge, Dunellen are all for the taking---towns Christie carried in '09 and '13.

[Suburbia]

2021 is on track to be the first time New Jersey elects a Governor that’s the same party as the President since 1985.

This.

NJGOP needs to retool after their November loss....Guadagno and Ciattarelli are not compelling statewide; Christie sucked the oxygen out of the NJGOP.....

2025 they have the possibility with Ryan Peters.....

[Suburbia]

Gov. Murphy and President Biden held a news conference in Hillsborough Township, NJ, where Biden won and the last Republican to carry the town was Bush 2004.....

I think Guadagno carried Hillsborough in 2017...it's Ciattarelli's home town.....

[Suburbia]

Murphy and Ciattarelli are arguing over police and race in a debate tonight....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RSvOfnOuu3E

[Suburbia]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

[Suburbia]

I've seen enough, I support Ciattarelli now. Murphy is coming across as a total asshole, and his answers on taxes are just strange.

Murphy is running aggressive because he does not want Democrats to be apathetic since it is an off-year like 2009-10 and 2013-14

I'm not sure how well it is working if he's going to act like this. I was expecting to come out on Murphy's side but now I'm on Ciattarelli's.

Murphy wants to intensify the Democratic base in Essex, Hudson, Union and Camden counties, while attracting suburban women in Somerset, Middlesex, Morris and Burlington...

[Suburbia]

Murphy’s entire campaign is built around appealing to white liberals, which makes no sense. This may wind up being one of the worst incumbent campaigns in state history. Still think he wins but am now expecting single digits.

Isn't that the base of Murphy's appeal? White liberals in Red Bank/Middletown/Jersey City/Camden, etc.

Ciattarelli's appeal is to the typical suburban Republican base in Monmouth/Salem/Morris/Bergen, but a lot of them are Matthew Dowd-types turning blue because of Trumpism.

Trumpism is toxic in New Jersey.

[Suburbia]

I was raised in New Jersey and have consulted for successful campaigns in both parties there. The only thing mildly inaccurate about my post was the Mississippi comparison, since Mississippi has no white moderates, let alone liberals. But the point was still obviously correct — Phil Murphy is wasting time going after the sort of socially-liberal suburban whites who still obsess over Trump.

Nearly every major competitive campaign in the state today employs a strategy that takes most white and all black voters for granted and focuses on the middle (see 2009) — the only way things vary are in a non-competitive landslide like the anti-Trump, anti-Christie wave the state saw in 2017–18 (where a significant minority of conservative whites voted Democratic) or Christie's 2013 win (where he picked up a fair number of black voters).

Murphy's strategy is betting on a similar statewide environment, and it clearly isn't working. At this point in 2017, for comparison, Guadagno had basically stopped fundraising. Most people I've talked to say this is a worse incumbent campaign than Corzine's (who had the environment more strongly against him) and possibly the worst ever. (Keep in mind this is a low bar; incumbents have only been running since 1947 and only a few have lost.) That doesn't mean he'll lose, obviously. I think he'll survive pretty comfortably despite himself.

I also probably should have used "progressive"; forgot this site uses idiosyncratic (though more accurate, to its credit) ideological terms, but everyone in the real world still calls extreme Democrats liberals.

How is Murphy running a bad campaign?

[Suburbia]

Murphy is too low key, he should have been aggressive

[Suburbia]

Jack Ciattarelli and Diane Allen will formally concede tomorrow afternoon, as it is mathematically impossible to win.

Diane Allen's career is over, she was brought out of retirement to do this adventure, is Ciattarelli's career over or does he run in 2025 or does he run for a Congressional seat in 2022 or 2024?

https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2021/11/11/ciattarelli-plans-to-concede-in-new-jersey-governors-race-1392833

[Suburbia]

With almost everything now counted, here's the order of counties from most to least Democratic:

1. Essex
2. Hudson
3. Mercer
4. Camden
5. Union
6. Middlesex
7. Burlington
8. Bergen
9. Somerset

<Statewide result>

10. Passaic
11. Gloucester
12. Cumberland
13. Atlantic
14. Morris
15. Monmouth
16. Hunterdon
17. Cape May
18. Salem
19. Warren
20. Sussex
21. Ocean

It seems like Somerset and Passaic will indeed be the statewide bellwethers for some time.

Passaic has Paterson and Passaic City, so Lean D, but Wayne is there and Wayne is a GOP-leaning place.

[Suburbia]

Murphy lost his own hometown, Middletown.

He lost Middletown in 2017 as well.

I guess Middletown is a red town because of the taxes.

https://savejersey.com/2021/11/murphys-neighbors-voted-against-him-by-a-2-to-1-margin/

[Suburbia]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

Murphy probably won Middlesex's white vote as well....

[Suburbia]

So Ciattarelli obviously won the white vote statewide. Is it also safe to assume that he won it in every county aside from Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Union and Camden?

Murphy probably won Middlesex's white vote as well....

What? Absolutely not. I'm even doubtful he won it in Union and Camden (though he still probably did, narrowly). I'll grant he won Mercer whites but only because that's the one county in that with a proportionally large population of white liberals.

New census numbers are going to show that most of these counties are now close to majority-minority. Middlesex almost definitely is. There's zero chance that Murphy won the white vote given the relatively tight margin. The majority white precincts (almost exclusively in Monroe and Old Bridge) all went for Ciattarelli with the exception of the retirement homes in Monroe (which are almost exclusively Jewish Brooklyn emigrants).

Middlesex Precinct Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NJ/Middlesex/110780/web.278093/#/summary

Racial Breakdown: https://statisticalatlas.com/county/New-Jersey/Middlesex-County/Race-and-Ethnicity

He had to win Middlesex's white vote to win countywide.....did he win South Amboy?

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli won Sayreville, South Amboy and held Woodbridge to 5%.....Democrats need to work harder here....

That area was once McGreevey-Corzine country....what happened?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fo4_yxZMc_6gxHWseCO6QPARhj7O35FnXdPU8OfbQfQ/edit#gid=759796571

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli won Sayreville, South Amboy and held Woodbridge to 5%.....Democrats need to work harder here....

That area was once McGreevey-Corzine country....what happened?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fo4_yxZMc_6gxHWseCO6QPARhj7O35FnXdPU8OfbQfQ/edit#gid=759796571

Those areas are WWC. As machine politics have declined and trends have progressed in the last 20 years, there’s not much to compel these voters to vote D. Middlesex County is decent ground for Republicans going forward. It’s educated and diverse, but that’s the composite of a lot of very educated Indian areas not particularly heavy in educated Whites and working class White areas like Sayreville and Hispanic cities like NB and Perth Amboy. Overall there’s just not a lot of places that can be expected to trend leftward.

I think Pallone’s district in its current form would be very close in 2022. The more familiar that I become with the area through redistributing, the more I realize a Republican district could be created through Southeast Middlesex and North Monmouth.

Health care? Jobs? Middlesex Democrats may oust Kevin McCabe, how could he let this be? This would have never happened under former Middlesex Democratic boss John A. Lynch Jr.--and his dad, John Sr.

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli won Sayreville, South Amboy and held Woodbridge to 5%.....Democrats need to work harder here....

That area was once McGreevey-Corzine country....what happened?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Fo4_yxZMc_6gxHWseCO6QPARhj7O35FnXdPU8OfbQfQ/edit#gid=759796571

Those areas are WWC. As machine politics have declined and trends have progressed in the last 20 years, there’s not much to compel these voters to vote D. Middlesex County is decent ground for Republicans going forward. It’s educated and diverse, but that’s the composite of a lot of very educated Indian areas not particularly heavy in educated Whites and working class White areas like Sayreville and Hispanic cities like NB and Perth Amboy. Overall there’s just not a lot of places that can be expected to trend leftward.

I think Pallone’s district in its current form would be very close in 2022. The more familiar that I become with the area through redistributing, the more I realize a Republican district could be created through Southeast Middlesex and North Monmouth.

Health care? Jobs? Middlesex Democrats may oust Kevin McCabe, how could he let this be? This would have never happened under former Middlesex Democratic boss John A. Lynch Jr.--and his dad, John Sr.

American politics has shifted from a class based axis to a cultural based axis in that time. These areas aren’t that poor, but they are quite old-school/hard-knock whatever you want to call it. Not particularly welcoming to ‘wokism’.

I wouldn’t call them pro-police like Staten Island or Long Island definitely is, using an issue you like to discuss, but the streets aren’t lined with BLM signs in East Brunswick the way they are in Princeton. These areas aren’t right wing or conservative or full of poor resentful Whites, they just aren’t the type of places that are repulsed by Trumps demeanor or attracted to liberal professionalism.

Young people in those areas are woke, but their grandparents who vote aren't. South Amboy's mayor is a Democrat, SA is ancestrally Democratic, the city council Democrat, the police force conservadems, I wonder if the NJGOP will invest there...2022, the mayor is up for reelection for a fourth term.....

[Suburbia]

It's pretty remarkable how Somerset still managed to swing D from 2017 despite what happened statewide.

Why has Somerset been so Democratic for an affluent white county.......compared to Morris?