NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[Suburbia]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/cardinale-still-intends-to-seek-re-election/

Republican State Senator Gerald Cardinale of Bergen County will run for reelection next year at the age of 87. I don't know how people do it.

Loretta Weinberg, a NJ Democratic titan is retiring this year at the age of 85. Codey should retire as well.

https://www.nj.com/politics/2021/01/loretta-weinberg-huge-force-in-nj-legislature-to-retire-at-end-of-her-term.html

[Suburbia]

Could Murphy win 58-42, or 60-40, if Ciattarelli is an underwhelming candidate, which I see happening.

[Suburbia]

Sen. Tom Kean Jr. will not run for reelection to his LD-21 district, making it most likely that he will challenge Malinowski again in 2022......

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/kean-2021-re-elect/

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick will run for the state Senate seat, making a leadership vacuum in the Assembly GOP....

This district was once a central Jersey affluent Republican stronghold to a swing district, because of Christie and Trump.

[Suburbia]

Rising GOP star Assemblyman Ryan Peters will not run for reelection in LD-8.....

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/ryan-peters-wont-seek-re-election-to-state-assembly/

Also looming large for Peters is that he is the commander of an active U.S. Navy Reserve unit.

Peters was notified in May 2020 that his Sea, Air and Land (SEAL) team was to be deployed in November.  That deployment was cancelled, but Peters could still be called up for the final time in 2021.

“While I come to the end of a higher profile level of service, I will always endeavor to serve this great country and all of my neighbors,” he said.

The two-term legislator said he was grateful for the opportunity to serve in the public office.

“I owe my family, our friends, supporters and even my detractors, a debt of gratitude that I don’t think I will ever be able to repay Their sacrifices are too numerous to count,” stated Peters. “Each morning, I wake with amazement at the things I have been able to experience thanks to the opportunities this great country has provided me.”

The Annapolis graduate had been seen as a likely challenger to his former running mate, State Sen. Dawn Addiego (R-Evesham), this year.  Addiego switched parties in 2019 and is seeking re-election as a Democrat.

Peters had also been considered as a possible challenger to Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) in 2022.  While he has not precluded running for office again someday, he has no plans to run next year.

The Hainesport resident earned a law degree from Rutgers and won a seat on the Burlington County Board of Freeholders in 2015.  He moved up to the State Assembly in 2017 and was re-elected in 2019 by a 1,011-vote margin after Democrats spent millions trying to capture the 8th district seats.

Peters is the first announced legislative retirement this year.

[/b]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/ryan-peters-wont-seek-re-election-to-state-assembly/

[Suburbia]

Rising GOP star Assemblyman Ryan Peters will not run for reelection in LD-8.....

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/ryan-peters-wont-seek-re-election-to-state-assembly/

Also looming large for Peters is that he is the commander of an active U.S. Navy Reserve unit.

Peters was notified in May 2020 that his Sea, Air and Land (SEAL) team was to be deployed in November.  That deployment was cancelled, but Peters could still be called up for the final time in 2021.

“While I come to the end of a higher profile level of service, I will always endeavor to serve this great country and all of my neighbors,” he said.

The two-term legislator said he was grateful for the opportunity to serve in the public office.

“I owe my family, our friends, supporters and even my detractors, a debt of gratitude that I don’t think I will ever be able to repay Their sacrifices are too numerous to count,” stated Peters. “Each morning, I wake with amazement at the things I have been able to experience thanks to the opportunities this great country has provided me.”

The Annapolis graduate had been seen as a likely challenger to his former running mate, State Sen. Dawn Addiego (R-Evesham), this year.  Addiego switched parties in 2019 and is seeking re-election as a Democrat.

Peters had also been considered as a possible challenger to Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) in 2022.  While he has not precluded running for office again someday, he has no plans to run next year.

The Hainesport resident earned a law degree from Rutgers and won a seat on the Burlington County Board of Freeholders in 2015.  He moved up to the State Assembly in 2017 and was re-elected in 2019 by a 1,011-vote margin after Democrats spent millions trying to capture the 8th district seats.

Peters is the first announced legislative retirement this year.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/ryan-peters-wont-seek-re-election-to-state-assembly/

Oxygen thief, he's damn right he'll never be able to repay.

How is Peters a oxygen thief? What did he do?

[Suburbia]

Another rising NJGOP star is retiring:

State Senator Chris Brown

State Sen. Christopher Brown, a first-term Republican state senator from the most politically competitive district in the state, will not seek re-election.

“It’s been an honor and a privilege to serve our Atlantic County families as their representative in the Legislature. These ten years have gone by in the blink of an eye,” Brown said.

He said that he learned life goes by at a very young age “and tomorrow is promised to no one.”

“Knowing the pages in the Book of Life turn quickly, I believe each chapter should be an adventure. While this chapter of serving as a legislator is coming to an end, I am looking forward to the next chapter which I’m sure will lead to another adventure for my family and me,” Brown said. “I don’t know what that adventure will be, but I’m excited to find out.”

Brown said the chapter of his life involving his legislative career “was a page turner, particularly the story about our successful fight to defeat North Jersey casinos, which saved our industry and thousands of local jobs.”

The unexpected retirement by a 56-year-old Atlantic County senator puts the 2nd legislative district seat in the leans Democratic column.

Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo (D-Northfield), who had been expected to seek re-election to a fifth term, is now expected to run for the Senate, the New Jersey Globe has learned.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/legislature/chris-brown-will-not-seek-re-election-to-state-senate-seat/

Former Assemblyman Vince Polistina will run for the seat.

https://savejersey.com/2021/02/polistina-will-seek-chris-browns-ld2-state-senate-seat/

Weinberg, Bateman, Kean and Brown are all retiring from the Senate...I think Holly Scheispi will unseat Cardinale and I think that Sam Thompson and Shirley Turner probably retires as well.....

[Suburbia]

Longtime Republican state senator Gerald Cardinale dead at age 86

State Sen. Gerald Cardinale, a conservative stalwart who has served in the New Jersey Legislature longer than any other Republican in state history, died today.  He was 86.

Cardinale had been seeking re-election to an unprecedented 13th term at the time of his death and had been battling a series of health issues over the last year.  He died after a brief illness, his family said.

He had enjoyed a distinguished 54-year political career that began with his election to the Demarest Board of Education in 1967.

He was popular enough in his hometown to overcome the massive Democratic Watergate wave to unseat Democratic Mayor Rosemary Sheehan with 50.6% of the vote in an election where a 22-year incumbent congressman lost his seat.  Cardinale swept a Republican majority on the borough council along with him.

As mayor, Cardinale  established a senior citizen center in the historic Demarest railroad station, where he played a key role in its preservation.

Democrats had swept the 39th in the 1973 Watergate landslide, but won back one Assembly seat in 1975.  The winner of that race, John Markert (R-Westwood), gave up his seat after two years to run for an open State Senate seat in 1977.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/in-memoriam/senator-gerald-cardinale-dies-at-86/

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli says GOP and white people need to stop saying "All Lives Matter"

The assemblyman also suggested moving away from criticisms of Black-led social movements that have often proven a target for Republicans nationally.

“As Republicans, we need to get away from All Lives Matter and things of that nature,” McClellan said. “If somebody’s going to say to be ‘Black Lives Matter,’ the answer should be yes. When they say ‘Do Blue Lives Matter?’ The answer should be yes.”

Black voters have overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidates nationally for most of the last century. No Republican presidential candidate has won more than 13% of Black vote since 1968, and there’s been little departure from that trend at the state level.

Ciattarelli wants to combat the view, elevated by sects of his party over the past four years, that the GOP has little interest in the problems faced by Black voters.

“As a Republican Party that believes in the individual, I’ve always qualified that to also say that doesn’t mean we’re not our brothers’ and sisters’ keeper,” he said. “We don’t want people thinking the Republican Party believes so strongly in the individual that we’re going to leave folks behind that have been marginalized or disadvantaged.”

Though he hedged on whether he would seek out a woman or person of color to run as his lieutenant governor, Ciattarelli said he’d lend some focus to recruiting diverse down-ballot candidates.

“I joined the Republican Party because I always found it to be the more diverse party, diversity of mind, diversity of thought. The party of Lincoln,” he said. “We have hard work cut out for us in making the Republican Party less white, more Black, more Brown and I think more female, so certainly those things factor greatly into who it is that we’re recruiting.”

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-looks-to-expand-outreach-to-black-voters/

Ironically, Ciattarelli's GOP opponent, Hirsh Singh is very anti-BLM for a South Asian candidate........
https://www.hirshsingh.com/

[Suburbia]

Has there been any polling of this race recently or any word of polling to come?

It would be useful to see if Murphy has fallen in popularity. I imagine he's quite popular at the moment.

If I were to guess NJ will be the last state to fully reopen after mass vaccination, just like it was this past year, which could hurt him in the summer and into the election season.

No polling surprisingly.

I don't think Murphy can be beaten this year. People usually like stability and Murphy did not do what Trump did--Ciattarelli is not inspiring like Christie was in 2009 and Hirsh Singh is a rightwing dream---he is violently anti-BLM.

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli says GOP and white people need to stop saying "All Lives Matter"

The assemblyman also suggested moving away from criticisms of Black-led social movements that have often proven a target for Republicans nationally.

“As Republicans, we need to get away from All Lives Matter and things of that nature,” McClellan said. “If somebody’s going to say to be ‘Black Lives Matter,’ the answer should be yes. When they say ‘Do Blue Lives Matter?’ The answer should be yes.”

Black voters have overwhelmingly backed Democratic candidates nationally for most of the last century. No Republican presidential candidate has won more than 13% of Black vote since 1968, and there’s been little departure from that trend at the state level.

Ciattarelli wants to combat the view, elevated by sects of his party over the past four years, that the GOP has little interest in the problems faced by Black voters.

“As a Republican Party that believes in the individual, I’ve always qualified that to also say that doesn’t mean we’re not our brothers’ and sisters’ keeper,” he said. “We don’t want people thinking the Republican Party believes so strongly in the individual that we’re going to leave folks behind that have been marginalized or disadvantaged.”

Though he hedged on whether he would seek out a woman or person of color to run as his lieutenant governor, Ciattarelli said he’d lend some focus to recruiting diverse down-ballot candidates.

“I joined the Republican Party because I always found it to be the more diverse party, diversity of mind, diversity of thought. The party of Lincoln,” he said. “We have hard work cut out for us in making the Republican Party less white, more Black, more Brown and I think more female, so certainly those things factor greatly into who it is that we’re recruiting.”

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/ciattarelli-looks-to-expand-outreach-to-black-voters/

Ironically, Ciattarelli's GOP opponent, Hirsh Singh is very anti-BLM for a South Asian candidate........
https://www.hirshsingh.com/

That's very interesting, but I doubt that it will work to his benefit in an election against Murphy. I mean, let's be real, this is the absolute bare minimum that a Republican can do to court black voters. He can't seriously expect to win over a record number of them just for saying this.

Ciattarelli has been aggressively courting Black voters for years, he visited a food bank in Irvington he says the party needs to do much better with Black voters. Christie won 21 percent of Black voters in 2013, Phil Murphy won 94 percent in 2017---Ciattarelli is running a balancing act--he says Black Lives Matter but also says that there needs to be law and order as well. His primary opponent, Hirsh Singh, is militantly anti-BLM...Singh is Indian American.....

https://savejersey.com/2020/11/ciattarelli-donates-turkeys-in-irvington-blames-covid-19-restrictions-for-growing-holiday-needs/

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli spoke at a "Stop The Steal" rally per InsiderNJ, which has probably killed his chances. I've now switched my support from Ciattarelli to Murphy.

https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/njdsc-republican-gubernatorial-candidate-jack-ciattarelli-yet-explain-decision-speak-bedminster-stop-steal-rally/

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli spoke at a "Stop The Steal" rally per InsiderNJ, which has probably killed his chances. I've now switched my support from Ciattarelli to Murphy.

He's sewn up the GOP primary, but that absolutely destroys any small chance he had in the general. Safe D.

Likely D. Property taxes are too high in NJ, and even some New Jersey Democrats find the high property taxes as confiscatory.......Murphy likely wins a second term, but pre-covid, it would have been Lean D with Jennifer Beck, if she had ran....

Murphy's second term better focus on reducing property taxes.....or else we will see Governor Beck or Governor Peters in 2025

[Suburbia]

A lot of NJ Republicans are tired of the Forrester/Kean Jr./Zimmer/Kyrillos/Guadagno/Hugin/Ciattarelli "RINO" wing

Christie was lucky to win in 2009 because Corzine was an ineffective governor

That is probably why Hirsh Singh is leading the primary

But it is Likely D/Safe D regardless

[Suburbia]

His reelect numbers are 48 in favor vs 43 against. It should also be noted that Monmouth had JVD trailing by 5, but he won by 6. I know it's just one district, but I'd take it with a slight grain of salt.

That said, Murphy is still favored, and my guess he wins by 12-15.

Republicans have a very solid floor in this state of around 41-42%.

Christie 2009 got to 48%, Whitman 1993 got to 49%......it takes the right Republican and high state taxes, especially property taxes to win...

Murphy is lucky that COVID happened, if not, he probably would have middling approvals, because of taxes. Although NJ is a blue state, people don't like taxes and that is the Republicans strong suit here, is property taxes....Murphy's second term better prioritize property tax reform or else a Republican will be elected in 2025 or 2029

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

It could. Every year is different. I think Kean will win next year's rematch anyway, Malinowski is vulnerable to defeat....

Murphy will win by 10 points at least....

[Suburbia]

Do you think Ciattarelli should run a racialized campaign, appealing more to white suburban voters, to gain traction?

[Suburbia]

Nikki Haley endorses Ciattarelli for governor, and some MAGA rightists aren't happy...

https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2021/07/10/trump-critic-nikki-haley-endorses-jack-ciattarelli-for-governor-in-new-jersey/

Ciattarelli will lose by 5-15 points, he hasn't even picked a running mate yet, they probably don't want to be on the losing Ciattarelli ticket, they don't want to end up like Carlos Rendo, Guadagno's running mate who lost with her....

Chris Christie sucked the oxygen out of the NJGOP....Christie's 2009 and 2013 playbook is still workable but it takes the right Republican....that Republican may not emerge until 2025, 2029 or 2033.....

[Suburbia]

Ciattarelli will win Somerset..it's his home county. Murphy will lose Monmouth. Ciattarelli needs to pick a Trumpiest running mate to get Sussex and Ocean to turn out

Did you not see the very convincing posts above detailing why Somerset County is gone at the statewide level for Republicans? Sure, Murphy may not replicate Biden's record performance in the county, and there may still be some local level and state legislature support for Republicans, but otherwise it is maybe the quintessential example of the counties that Republicans are swiftly losing ground in.

Ciattarelli will run on crime and taxes---two big things that Somerset residents care about.

Murphy got a surprising 45% of the white vote in NJ overall, to Republican Guadagno's 53%.....does Murphy drop off a bit?
Murphy also got 46% of the white male vote----a surprise for a New Jersey Democrat.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2017-election/nj/

Crime and taxes didn't work for Trump or Kean.

It could. Every year is different. I think Kean will win next year's rematch anyway, Malinowski is vulnerable to defeat....

Murphy will win by 10 points at least....

Depending how the districts are redrawn, Kean could indeed beat Malinowski if he becomes the fall guy in exchange for Gottheimer, Kim, and Sherrill getting safer districts; as I think is possible, especially with Malinowski's ethical issues that have recently come to light. Or perhaps he'll run in Bonnie Watson Coleman's new district if she decides to retire. I would begrudgingly be fine with that though, better Kean than Hirsch Singh or someone similarly unhinged if New Jersey absolutely has to have another Republican representative.

Kean is running again in 2022, I think this will be one of the GOP's biggest House pickups in 2022....

[Suburbia]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

[Suburbia]

"Moderate" Republican Jack Ciattarelli, seen as a Republican who can win moderate women voters in suburban areas lost by Republicans say that he will not allow "sodomy" to be taught to young people in NJ public and private schools....I think he is a moderate but he has to appeal to the Ocean/Sussex/Hunterdon base that he needs to turn out in November....but he is not going to win anyway

https://gothamist.com/news/gop-nominee-nj-governor-wants-end-lgbtq-curriculum

He is only a "moderate" because he acknowledged that Biden won the election. Other than that he is still your generic Republican of today, which means he is still pretty far right in most other respects.

But he is pro-choice and he has a suburban appeal.....he could flip Somerset or even middle class towns in Middlesex...

[Suburbia]

It's clear that Ciattarelli knows he is going to lose because he did not pick a running mate as expected, he said he would have by June 30.

It's now July 30, past the deadline...

Someone probably does not want to be a sacrifical lamb and run with the loser, like Carlos Rendo and Kim Guadagno....

Ryan Peters, etc. have a political future, they don't want to go down that path of being a forgettable person who ran on the losing ticket.

Ciattarelli should just perform well in the fall debates and hope to lose by a respectable 10-15 points, and hope to run for a Congressional seat in 2022---he could run against Sherrill or Watson Coleman if some parts of Somerset gets added to the NJ-11/NJ-12....

[Suburbia]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

[Suburbia]

Allen is a older woman, she has experience and she is moderate. Ciattarelli is probably to the right of Allen, ideologically.

Allen was the female moderate choice for Republicans in 2002 when she ran for U.S. Senate.

Allen may be too moderate for the base!!!

She is for equal pay!!! RINO!!!

Someone like Allen is not acceptable to the Hirsh Singhs and Marsha Blackburns of the world!!!

They will lose to Murphy, however.

You're overestimating the relevance of Lieutenant Governor picks in our elections. Interestingly though, in the completely unlikely circumstance that Ciatarelli won, we still wouldn't have had a male Lieutenant Governor yet.

True. They will lose to Murphy, however.