NJ - Quinnipiac: Murphy +22

[Suburbia]

Safe D.

Likely D. Anything can happen to the N.J. Democratic Party. If Murphy implodes in July or August, the Democrats could put Assemblymen Lou Greenwald (D-Camden) or Jack McKeon (D-Essex) to be the replacements. Anything can happen.

[Suburbia]

Murphy clearly recognizes that Democratic voters are trending left. I just don't buy him as genuine.

He's a good candidate. He doesn't seem anti-success. He could be VP in 2020 or 2024 for a minority candidate/Westerner.

[Suburbia]

Lt. Gov. Guadagno recieves 12% of minority voters against Phil Murphy in the poll. In the 2013 N.J. Governor's election exit poll, Gov. Christie got 21% of black voters and won 51% of Latino voters. Those days are over, post-Bridgegate/N.J. economic slump/Trump ties.

I wonder if Guadagno may do worse than Christie with black voters.

http://www.nytimes.com/projects/elections/2013/general/new-jersey/exit-polls.html

[Suburbia]

I think any Democrat will win 2017. Christie is so widely hated here it's unbelievable.

This. I live in N.J. Christie is despised also because of NJ Transit transportation problems. Hoboken Station has been packed with angry commuters because of a train track derailment in Penn Station, Manhattan, the busiest transportation hub in North America. Christie cut a lot of money from N.J. Transit, something I disagree with. I travel with NJ Transit sometimes. Christie should have not cut NJ Transit. He was foolish to do so.

Murphy or Johnson will win the state, most likely. Ciattarelli could give the Democrats a challenge.